RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA will cut rates by only 75bp this cycle We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by 25bp, to 4.10%, at its meeting on 18th February. Although the labour market remains resilient and there are tentative signs of a pickup in... 11th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate only slowed a touch to 24.0% y/y in January. But with earlier falls in the pound now starting to fall out of the annual price comparison, we expect Egypt’s headline... 10th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Doubting the Bank’s higher inflation forecast We doubt inflation will rise as far as the Bank of England’s new forecast suggests. The Bank's dovish tilt when it cut interest rates this week suggests it isn't putting too much weight on its own... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Hawks flying in CEE, growing pressure on the CBR? Communications from central banks in Poland and Czechia this week were both on the hawkish side, but we expect a continued divergence in monetary policy over the coming year as interest rates remain... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Estimates of neutral policy rate won’t tie ECB’s hands Comparing the ECB’s deposit rate to estimates of its equilibrium level suggests that monetary policy will soon be only slightly restrictive. But there is a huge amount of uncertainty around these... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Budget, RBI, Delhi election, Modi-Trump meeting A busy week for domestic policymaking began with the Finance Ministry showing fiscal restraint in the FY25/26 Union Budget and concluded with the RBI kicking off its easing cycle, with an election in... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update New governor, new direction for the RBI The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Feb. 25) The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more... 7th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will look past strong household spending data Provisional household spending data published this week suggest that private consumption may have picked up more strongly in Q4 than the Reserve Bank of Australia had anticipated. However, given the... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates again soon While the surge in bonus payments in December in principle bodes well for the upcoming spring wage negotiations as it signals strong corporate profitability, it's worth highlighting that growth in... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverging 1739372400 Our latest Global Inflation Watch publication highlights a growing divergence between US and European inflation dynamics and the uncertainties facing the world e
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank stepped up the pace of monetary easing to 50bp at today’s meeting, lowering the policy rate to 9.50%, and the overall communications were dovish. While a tariff-induced drop in... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields likely to fall and weigh on the pound We expect the Bank of England to cut faster and further than investors expect, pushing Gilt yields down and in turn weighing on the pound. 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The threat of US tariffs will hang over the economy for the foreseeable future, weighing on... 6th February 2025 · 1 min read
