India Economics Weekly RBI shifts stance, FTSE Russell, state election results The shift in the RBI's official policy stance, alongside the announcement of India's inclusion in the FTSE Russell EM bond index and state election results that should ease fiscal risks, has... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: further cuts on the way The Bank of Korea today cut interest rates by 25bps (to 3.25%), but tried to dampen speculation that it would cut rates at its final meeting of the year in November. With growth struggling and... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to look for at the MoF press conference All eyes are on the Ministry of Finance's crucial press conference tomorrow morning. We think this year’s growth target is just about achievable if local governments can be pushed to fully deploy... 11th October 2024 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Quarter-point cuts will keep on coming A 25bp interest rate cut looks nailed on next week, taking the deposit rate down to 3.25%. Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policymakers expect to reduce rates further but avoid... 10th October 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Sept 17-18) The minutes of the mid-September FOMC meeting reveal that support among Fed officials for kicking off the loosening cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut was a little weaker than the lone dissent on the... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut? 1729173600 Given the amount of signalling by Governing Council officials, it would be surprising if the ECB didn’t cut rates at its October meeting.
Europe Economics Update Consumption to drive Sweden’s recovery Sweden’s economy is likely to see a strong rebound next year as consumption will benefit from fiscal stimulus and lower household interest expenditure. We think that the recovery will encourage the... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The communications alongside the decision by the Bank of Israel to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, underline that policymakers have grown more concerned about the escalation of... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in September was mainly due to drought-related effects on food and electricity prices but, even so, it will reinforce the hawkishness of Copom... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The second consecutive rise in Egypt’s headline inflation rate, to 26.4% y/y in September, on the back of electricity and fuel price hikes further reduces the chances of a first interest rate cut... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on course for December rate cut The Reserve Bank of India’s new-look MPC voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today as expected but struck a less hawkish tone in its communications, which included a change in the official... 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
