Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (October 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

RBA Watch

RBA still on course to cut rates by February

The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. We suspect it will reiterate its pledge to hold its fire until year-end, given that the labour...

30th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2024)

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

ECB to cut deposit rate to just 1.5%

In light of the worsening outlook for economic growth and inflation in the euro-zone, we are making major downward revisions to our ECB interest rate forecast. We now think the Bank will implement...

28th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

New immigration targets a headache for the Bank

Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by a larger 50bp this week, the Bank of Canada outlined a set of positive economic forecasts, partly because it expects residential investment growth to...

25th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next?

The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes

Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace...

25th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Trump trade comes for gold; palladium surges

Having behaved “normally” over the summer, gold prices have slipped back into anti-traditional-driver mode in recent weeks, seemingly caught up in a wider “Trump trade”. One can – and plenty surely...

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB’s dovish shift, euro heading for parity?

ECB policymakers were out in force at the IMF meetings in Washington this week and many seemed willing to contemplate a 50bp rate cut in December. We now think that is the most likely decision and...

25th October 2024 · 11 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp today, to 21.00%, is evidence that – despite President Putin’s efforts at this week’s BRICS summit to...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea dodges recession (just), Sri Lanka in deflation

The Bank of Korea pushed back strongly against the prospect of further cuts in the near term when it lowered interest rates earlier this month. But the weakness of the Q3 GDP figures underlines that...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Lending growth picking up only gradually

New bank lending has risen recently as the interest rates on loans have begun to edge down, but it is still weak. While it will probably continue to increase gradually in the coming months, the ECB...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Election nailbiter

Polls suggest that Japan’s ruling party, the LDP, could lose its Lower House majority on Sunday for the first time since its brief stint out of power ended in 2012. As long as it was still able to...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations

At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read