Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (October) Final inflation data for October confirm that price pressures strengthened and became more broad-based. Unlike in the US and UK, there is little sign that goods inflation has passed its peak. While... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov.) The plunge in new home sales in Toronto in September points to further falls in housing starts, although there are at least some signs that the worst may be behind us for home sales and that the... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Although the annual rates of CPI-median and CPI-trim edged up in October, the 3-month annualised rates that the Bank of Canada is now focussed on declined. As that for CPI-median is now in the 1% to 3... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch Rates will peak at 5.0% but will be cut by end-2023 With the labour market and inflation going from strength to strength and the next meeting three months away, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the overnight cash rate by 75bp at its... 16th November 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) It’s possible that the big leap in CPI inflation from 10.1% in September to a new 40-year high of 11.1% in October will mark the peak. But core inflation may yet rise further, which is why we think... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Data out of Nigeria showing a pick-up in inflation to 21.1% y/y in October offered little sign that price pressures are abating. And that’s before the effects of recent flooding and currency weakness... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation eased a touch from 3.1% y/y in September to 3.0% y/y in October (Consensus: 3.0% y/y; CE: 2.8% y/y) and we think the headline rate will continue to slow heading into 2023. 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) Another bigger-than-expected increase in core inflation, to 7.9% in October, will keep the Riksbank focused on slowing demand when policymakers meet next week. We expect a further 75bp rate hike, to 2... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The substantial falls in both headline consumer and wholesale price inflation in October reinforce our view that the Reserve Bank will slow the pace of monetary tightening in its next scheduled policy... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s bad loans, inflation outlook brightening Brazil’s president-elect Lula sent local financial markets into a tailspin late this week after he stressed the need for higher spending, reinforcing our concerns that the country’s public debt... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Midterms a mixed bag; disinflation begins in earnest While the outcome of the midterms remains unclear, far more important for the economy was October’s softer-than-expected core CPI data, which support our view that the Fed won’t need to raise interest... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Housing risks rising; strong activity in Sweden Policymakers at the Riksbank and Norges Bank face a tricky balancing act. The latest housing indicators from Sweden and Norway have been very weak, implying that prices will fall. But October’s... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
