BoE Watch BoE to deliver a more “forceful” interest rate hike The further strengthening in domestic inflationary pressures and exceptional tightness in the labour market suggests there is a strong case for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to opt for an... 27th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Risks skewed towards another 50bp hike The Norges Bank signalled in September that it intended to slow the pace of tightening, implying that it would hike by 25bp at the meeting next week. But with inflation data since then again coming in... 27th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set stage for sluggish growth EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Recession looms as tightening bites 1667919600 Our Global Economics team held a 20-minute online briefing on the outlook for the global economy and policy on Tuesday, 8th November.
Event EM Drop-In: How will EM economies and markets fare in the global downturn? 1667487600 Economists from our Emerging Markets and Markets teams discussed the outlook for EM financial markets in this regular dive into the big stories in EMs.
Latin America Economics Update Copom: staying hawkish despite inflation plunge The hawkish language in the statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision late yesterday, at which it left the Selic rate at 13.75%, reinforces our view that the sharp fall in inflation... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Beginning of the end for Bank’s tightening cycle Governor Tiff Macklem shifted his tone notably today, reassuring that the Bank was “trying to balance the risks of over- and under-tightening”, whereas previously the emphasis had stressed that it was... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack External vulnerabilities firmly in the spotlight Current account deficits have widened to alarming levels in Poland, Hungary, Turkey and, most of all, Romania, in recent months which has contributed to the downward pressure on currencies this year –... 26th October 2022 · 12 mins read
US Fed Watch Pace of tightening likely to slow soon Fed officials are gearing up for another 75bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. But that ultra-aggressive pace of tightening won’t continue indefinitely and, while he will be keen to avoid... 26th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil output cuts to drive sharper Gulf slowdown OPEC+ cut its oil production quotas by 2mn bpd in November and strong compliance with the agreement will hit GDP growth in the Gulf economies harder than other members of the group. The result is that... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Core inflation pressures strongest in CEE A closer look at core inflation across EMs suggests that underlying price pressures have started to ease. But they remain very strong by historic standards in most countries – and particularly so in... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April While the strength in Q3 inflation would favour another 50bp rate hike next week, we suspect the Reserve Bank of Australia will stick to a smaller 25bp increase. However, we are pencilling in one more... 26th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) Inflation was stronger than expected last quarter and will rise further in Q4. That’s consistent with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates more aggressively than most... 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
