UK Markets Chart Pack Fall in gilt yields won’t last, equities to trough sooner Given our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.25% now to a peak of 3.00%, we still think that gilt yields have further to rise. However, with attention in the markets... 29th July 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target dropped, property rescue plans The Politburo this week quietly abandoned the GDP growth target while promising to support the property sector and ensure that stalled projects are completed. The immediate goal is to boost confidence... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gazprom turns the screws Gazprom’s announcement this week that it is reducing the supply of gas through Nord Stream 1 to only a fifth of its normal capacity has pushed European natural gas prices up once again and threatens... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly “Build, Build, Build” is back, better news on inflation The president of the Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., earlier this week pledged to resume the “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. While... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022) The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jun.) The chunky increase in unsecured borrowing in June suggests that households are having to rely more on credit due to the cost of living crisis. But households won’t be able to fully offset the hit to... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (July) With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for the ECB to pursue further aggressive tightening of interest rates is unassailable. A 50bp hike in September now looks... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, provisional) GDP in Taiwan contracted last quarter as a surge in COVID-19 cases weighed heavily on consumer-facing sectors and exports slowed. Although consumption should bounce back now that virus cases are... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t widen tolerance band any further Long-term bond yields have dropped back in recent weeks which meant that the Bank of Japan had to work less hard to defend its 10-year yield target. Given that we no longer expect US 10-year Treasury... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Tokyo CPI (June 22) While industrial output bounced back strongly in June, the recovery in the labour market is stalling and consumer spending is faltering. One reason is that rising consumer prices are weighing on... 29th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily This is (probably) not the Powell pivot markets are looking for Financial markets have taken the combination of yesterday’s FOMC’s announcement and today’s negative US GDP print as confirmation that policymakers will ease off their aggressive monetary tightening... 28th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loonie unlikely to have big bearing on policy outlook Governor Tiff Macklem has voiced concern about the inflationary impact of the loonie, but we doubt that a modest fall would prevent the Bank of Canada from pausing its tightening before the Federal... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about the Global Economic Outlook We held an online Drop-In event yesterday to discuss our Q3 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update addresses several of the client questions... 28th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to 8.5% in July was higher than most anticipated and suggests that euro-zone inflation will also come in above expectations tomorrow. This will support what we assume... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook darkens The economic outlook has deteriorated across the region. Inflation is soaring and monetary conditions are tightening, which is weighing on households’ real incomes and spending power. The latest... 28th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jul.) The bigger-than-expected decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in July adds to a growing list of indicators pointing to activity slowing markedly in July. With the region’s gas supply now... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
