Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Firmer evidence of easing price pressures Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%... 7th December 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation peaking, but long road back to target Headline inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will peak in most countries in the next few months, at around 20% y/y, and should fall to single-digits across the region by end-2023. But we... 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not backing away from rate hikes just yet The RBA today hiked the cash rate by 25bp as widely anticipated and while the statement was marginally less hawkish, we’re sticking to our view that the Bank will lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings – A pivotal year for policy ends 1671116400 The last big central bank decisions of 2022 resulted in another batch of hefty rate hikes – if smaller than recent – but also provided important signals about the direction of policymaking in the c
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
Global Economics Update Digesting the upside surprises to food inflation While food inflation has surprised to the upside in major DMs, it seems to be at or near a peak. We expect a combination of base effects and an easing of underlying price pressures to drag on food... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tide turning or false dawn? The first fall in inflation for seventeen months suggests that the headline rate may now have peaked. However, this is far from certain, and in any case core inflation did not fall and is likely to... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Have we hit peak inflation? There is a good chance that CPI inflation has peaked or will peak before the end of the year. There are even some signs that inflation is becoming less persistent. This may contribute to the Bank of... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to declare victory on inflation The financial markets have scaled back their expectations for the peak in the cash rate following soft data on consumer spending and inflation. But while inflation will peak at slightly lower levels... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: US vs euro-zone – A tale of two inflation cycles 1670338800 Hopes may be rising that price pressures may finally be easing, but investors risk missing the fact that not all inflation cycles are alike.
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Nov.) The low inflation rate in November supports our view that the Swiss National Bank will not need to raise interest rates much further in the current cycle. Indeed, there is a growing chance that... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s COVID outbreak: your questions answered We hosted an online Drop-In yesterday to discuss China’s COVID outbreak and its domestic and global implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Wage growth to slow as labour market conditions ease As the economy slides into a mild recession in the first half of next year, triggering a rebound in the unemployment rate to almost 5% by end-2023, the resulting slowdown in the growth rates of wages... 30th November 2022 · 16 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.) Euro-zone inflation may now be past its peak but with the core measure unchanged in November and set to remain well above 2% next year, we expect the ECB to hike rates by 50bp or 75bp in December. 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
