US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Black Sea grain deal extension reduces risks to EMs Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine should help to keep a lid on wheat and corn prices over the coming months, reducing upward pressure on inflation in the emerging... 21st November 2022 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising... 21st November 2022 · 40 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Surging inflation won’t last Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October, the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the... 21st November 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly October CPI data offer some encouragement Although the data this week showed renewed rises in the annual rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in October, our calculations show that the timelier 3-month annualised measures both declined... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Hawks to rule in upcoming SA & Nigeria rate decisions In next week’s MPC meetings in South Africa and Nigeria, inflation concerns are likely to hold sway over economic woes, and we expect both central banks to keep raising interest rates. South Africa’s... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update October CPI: US/Europe contrast to endure in 2023 The October inflation data highlighted a contrast between the US and Europe, with core price pressures easing materially in the US but staying stronger in the euro-zone and UK. We think this will be... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession to begin in Q4 as inflation broadens We doubt that the recent strength in some of the official euro-zone activity data will last. The timelier surveys unanimously point to weaker activity to come, and the headwinds to growth from rising... 18th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen and COVID not to blame for Q3 GDP fall Q3 saw a surprise contraction in GDP that many media outlets blamed on the surge in virus cases and the slide in the yen’s value during the quarter. We think instead that the real culprits were a... 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth still not a major driver of price pressures Even though wage growth surpassed 3% for the first time since 2012 last quarter, and unemployment is back at a record low, the tight labour market has not been a major driver of the recent surge in... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 2022) Headline inflation set a new three-decade high in October on aggressive rises in food inflation excluding fresh food and will remain near those highs this quarter. That said, government support... 18th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Governor Ingves to go out with a (75bp) bang With inflation still more than five times the Riksbank’s target, Stefan Ingves may be tempted to end his marathon stint as Governor with another 100bp rate hike. But we think the Bank is more likely... 17th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Core inflation will stay above 2% until 2025 Next year will be characterised by falling headline inflation, which should help to prevent interest rate expectations and bond yields from rising much further. But we also expect core inflation to... 17th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (October) Final inflation data for October confirm that price pressures strengthened and became more broad-based. Unlike in the US and UK, there is little sign that goods inflation has passed its peak. While... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
