Asia Chart Pack Growth to slow in the second half of the year GDP figures for Korea released earlier today showed economic growth accelerated in the second quarter thanks to a strong rebound in private consumption as the economy enjoyed a reopening bounce. This... 26th July 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2022) The drop in inflation in Brazil to 11.4% y/y in the first half of July provides the first clear sign that inflation has passed its peak and is now on a downwards path. But even so, with the headline... 26th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Central banks may yet put more upward pressure on bond yields We expect elevated inflation to keep developed market (DM) central banks hiking rates aggressively this year, even as economies slow sharply, in some cases falling into recession. Accordingly, we... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation finally peaks CPI inflation has finally peaked but this will not be enough to prevent further large interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, especially as there is little evidence yet that the weakening housing... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Recessions knocking at the door Another month, another set of downbeat PMIs for advanced economies. The demand indicators weakened markedly in the US and the euro-zone for the second month in a row, crossing over into recessionary... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Looser fiscal/tighter monetary mix whoever is the Prime Minister If members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had hoped that this week's data releases would provide a clear steer on whether to follow other major central banks and raise interest rates by at... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to hike by 75bp despite weak GDP growth Fed officials may have briefly contemplated an even bigger hike following the news of the further surge in inflation in June but, with inflation expectations dropping back and the incoming news on... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt risks and IMF deals, hawks gain ground Recently approved IMF financing will ease near-term balance of payment pressures in Tanzania and Kenya, but the Fund’s push to tighten fiscal policy will weigh on recoveries. Meanwhile, this week’s... 22nd July 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.2% y/y in the first two weeks of July means that Banxico is all but certain to deliver another 75bp hike in interest rates, to 8.50%, at its... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark to seek wider rate differential with the ECB The strictures of Denmark’s exchange rate peg means that the Nationalbank will follow the ECB’s lead as it hike rates further over the coming months. But with the krone remaining towards the “strong”... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Remittances to take edge off current account concerns Data released this week showed that remittances flows into India dwarfed those to elsewhere in the world last year, helping India to maintain a small current account deficit and supporting the... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) Spending on travel and leisure is supporting activity and has so far prevented the UK composite flash PMI from joining the euro-zone’s PMI in contraction territory. Perhaps even more encouraging was... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls, encouraging signs in Sri Lanka (finally) We published our latest Emerging Asia Economic Outlook this week, contain our detailed forecasts. In this Weekly, we outline three key calls from the report. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s new president... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone is teetering on the brink of recession due to slumping demand and rising costs while inflationary pressures remain intense. The ECB will have to follow up... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing strains, migrant job losses Regulators have called on banks to step up lending to developers. But with banks becoming more cautious about issuing mortgages in the face of mortgage boycotts and local governments tightening... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
