Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – What to expect from equities, bonds and FX markets 1713362400 Our markets team recently held an online briefing all about how we expect global equities, bonds, and currencies to perform through the end of this year and into 2025.
Capital Daily What follows negative interest rates for Japan’s markets? The Bank of Japan ended its eight-year run of negative interest rates today . We think there are several implications for Japanese – and global – financial markets. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest... 18th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The renminbi looks weak and we think it will rally We think that, despite ongoing PBOC intervention to prop it up, the valuation of the renminbi looks very weak on a range of fundamental metrics. As such, we wouldn’t be surprised if it rose over time... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Inflation uncertainty could keep the dollar stronger for longer Stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data out of the US were the key catalysts for the greenback’s rebound this week, as investors continued to pare back their expectations for the Fed to cut its policy... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s debt swap, CLP, rate cuts The Argentine government’s successful local currency debt swap this week has reduced roll-over risks and, together with the softer-than-expected February inflation figure, appears to be giving... 15th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Springtime across markets; too good to be true? The past few months have seen risk premia compress across most financial markets, and stress across core financial markets appears lower than at any point since mid-2021. While some lingering risks... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Eurobond, SA banks and SDR increase The Nigerian naira’s latest devaluation has taken it closer to fair value and, with investor sentiment towards Nigeria improving, the government is lining up a fresh Eurobond sale. That may help to... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (Q1 2024) The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar... 15th March 2024 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-In: Where to spot financial risk in emerging markets 1711551600 Recent years have sharpened investor focus on identifying risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world as the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the surge in US rates have exposed
Capital Daily Headwinds likely to persist for LatAm equities and FX Most major equity markets and currencies in Latin America have lagged those in other regions since the start of the year, and we expect their underperformance to continue for some time. 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update The naira’s march to fair value The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is... 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The yen also rises (finally)? The surge of the Japanese yen ahead of next week’s BoJ policy announcement could still prove yet another false dawn. But with the monetary policy divergence that has driven the yen down over the past... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Yen on the move as payrolls brings dollar back to square one Today’s softish US non-farm payrolls report, combined with Fed Chair Powell’s relatively neutral testimony to Congress earlier in the week, has put an end to the dollar’s strong start to 2024, and... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
