Global Markets Update Risk premia on Turkish assets may stay low The risk premia on Turkish assets are now low relative to the past decade or so. We think that will remain the case over the coming quarters, given the positive global risk-on attitude and the ongoing... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update The worst may be over for the Chilean peso We think the headwinds driving the depreciation of the Chilean peso against the US dollar have largely run their course. We expect the Chilean peso to recover some ground by the end of the year. 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: What currency sell-offs mean for emerging markets 1713880800 The first Fed rate cut of this cycle is now looking like a second-half event and EM investors – and policymakers – are having to adjust to the delay.
Capital Daily Gilt yields may fall by more than Treasury yields Today’s UK CPI release has not made a sustained impact on investors’ expectations over the path of Bank Rate, and the market pricing implies that investors are still discounting fewer cuts from the... 17th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the currency sell-off? The recent bout of EM currency weakness may prompt (further) FX intervention, particularly in Asia, to stem currency volatility. Turkey’s central bank is likely to hike rates at its meeting next week... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Reassessing our forecast for the US dollar Continued resilience in the US economy looks set to delay the Fed easing cycle until (at least) the second half of this year, so we now think the greenback will stay strong against most currencies... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar soars on CPI bombshell; more to come? The US dollar has surged in the wake of another too-hot US CPI print, a dovish ECB and disappointing credit data out of China. The DXY index is now approaching its peak of last autumn (~106 currently... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zuma to stand, SA activity, Nigeria fuel prices A court decision this week in South Africa has laid the ground for former president Zuma to stand in next month’s elections and opinion polls suggest that his MK Party will become the third largest in... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FX intervention looking increasingly likely With the yen hitting a fresh multi-decade low against the dollar this week, the Ministry of Finance is signaling a growing likelihood of intervention in the foreign exchange markets. However, the Bank... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the scope for further euro weakness The euro has fallen sharply against the greenback this week, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it weakens a bit further in the short term. That said, we think a fall below parity in the EUR/USD rate is... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria stops ways and means use, but FX debt to rise Nigeria’s authorities have ceased central bank deficit monetisation via the ways and means facility. But the government will struggle to finance its ambitious spending plans – particularly given the... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift, Saudi gigaprojects, Morocco GDP Just over a month ago Egypt’s authorities underwent their dramatic shift to economic orthodoxy and the signs so far are more positive than in previous instances. The pound is more flexible, inflation... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The bigger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in February was the second in as many months, and together with the Bank of England’s clearer hints that it is getting close to cutting interest rates... 9th April 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Tough times for Japanese equities may not last We expect Japanese equities to do quite well this year, as hype around artificial intelligence proves a more powerful catalyst than the headwind we anticipate from a stronger yen. 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls report points to continued near-term dollar resilience Another robust US non-farm payrolls report has seen the dollar rebound a bit, unwinding some of its losses earlier in the week and putting the DXY index on track to end the week near its highest level... 5th April 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Outlook US dollar still likely to weaken later in 2024 The US dollar has started the year on the front foot as US growth and inflation again surprised to the upside, prompting the Fed to (again) take a more hawkish stance than other major central banks... 4th April 2024 · 24 mins read
