FX Markets Weekly Wrap One rangebound year in currency markets gives way to another? The final week ahead of the holiday period is drawing to an end with the US dollar somewhat weaker across the board. Unlike last year, the BoJ’s final policy meeting proved a(nother) damp squib, with... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2024 In our final Weekly of 2023 we explore three key themes for the coming year - when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, the economic impact of the general election, and the outlook for the... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Five key questions for currency markets in 2024 As the year draws to a close, this Update sets out our answers to five of the most commonly asked questions about currency markets for the coming year. In short, we expect another year of muddling... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico... 20th December 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds may weather JGB market normalisation We think the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield will rise over 2024 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifts its policy rate early next year and constraints on the JGB market ease. And while that... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Investors’ growing expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates in March next year, as well as the recent soft UK wage and inflation data, have convinced investors that the Bank of England... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Everyone is invited to the rally (except you, dollar) The Fed’s shift away from its “higher for longer” messaging (and European central banks attempts at maintaining a hawkish stance) pushed relative interest rate expectations against the US dollar... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government... 13th December 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Outlook US dollar strength likely to wane a bit further in 2024 The US dollar has reversed around half of the gains it made from mid-July to end-October amid a sharp fall in US Treasury yields and a general compression of risk premia across markets, leaving the... 13th December 2023 · 23 mins read
FX Markets Focus The USD: not the commodity currency you’re looking for The US dollar and the prices of major commodities, in aggregate, have often risen and fallen in tandem since 2021, in contrast to their strong inverse relationship for much of the past two decades... 12th December 2023 · 16 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar bounces back ahead of key central bank week The greenback has rebounded this week on the back of another batch of robust data out of the US economy, including today’s non-farm payrolls report. That stands in sharp contrast to the continued... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Yields in the US and Japan may diverge The global bond rally faced a setback today after the US employment report was released. But we think that yields will resume their downward march before long in most places, including the US. One... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBK supports the shilling, SA current account The Kenyan central bank’s surprise 200bp interest rate hike, to 12.50%, on Tuesday was clearly aimed at shoring up the currency. There are other reasons to think that pressure on the shilling will... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Can anything keep the US dollar down for good? We expect the US dollar’s resilience to fade over the next year or so, and forecast it to weaken against most major currencies. 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A tepid recovery Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in most places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be... 7th December 2023 · 21 mins read
