Asset Allocation Update On the relative performance of assets in China & the US We think both the recent outperformance of China’s sovereign bonds relative to those in the US and the underperformance of its equities will end – and may even reverse somewhat – in the near future... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of our US dollar forecast While the global backdrop continues to favour the US dollar, it's rally has stalled in recent weeks and we think that, absent a major deterioration in risk sentiment, the greenback will struggle to... 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although... 18th October 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where do things stand in Egypt? It has been almost a year since Egypt reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but progress on key policies that form part of the program has stalled. The pound has been a de-facto peg since... 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Q3 data dump and the economic and policy outlook 1697616000 Economists from our China and financial markets teams held an online briefing about the Q3 economic data release and outlook for the Chinese economy and markets.
FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (Q4 2023) The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar... 12th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Digital euro still a distant prospect There may be more political support for the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the European Union than in some other economies. However, it is still uncertain whether it will ever... 11th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher bond yields and the risks for EMs We’ve long argued that EMs were well placed to weather the Fed’s tightening cycle and episodes of rising US Treasury yields – and that has largely been borne out. And, as it happens, the latest sell... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fresh look at Egypt’s external position Despite a marked improvement in Egypt’s current account deficit, the pound’s de-facto peg is deterring critical capital inflows and adding to concerns over large external financing needs. A fresh... 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With the economy growing at an above-trend pace, the labour market should soon start to tighten... 9th October 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap DXY streak under threat despite strong payrolls Remarkably, the dollar may be about the lose its record streak of weekly gains despite a strong US payrolls report. While the initial reaction to today’s data was another jump in the greenback, it has... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria strike, Kenya debt, Oxford malaria vaccine This week, Nigeria avoided a potentially disruptive workers’ strike after a late government offer of short-term relief measures, but these risk adding to fiscal and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America better placed to face rising US yields Spillovers from rising US Treasury yields have hit Latin American financial markets harder than those of most other EMs. But the good news is that current account deficits in the region have narrowed... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness not a major macro concern The rupee has been hovering close to record lows this week amid the sell-off in global bond markets. But the good news is that the macroeconomic impact of a weakening rupee is limited. Meanwhile, the... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC has CNH on a leash, domestic tourism picks up PBOC intervention in Hong Kong kept the offshore renminbi largely stable against the dollar this week even as US yields jumped. This lowers the chance of a large adjustment to the daily fixing rate... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
