FX Markets Weekly Wrap Can “King Dollar” draw investors’ gaze from “Goldilocks”? The DXY index seems set to close this week at its strongest level in almost two months, breaking out of a narrow range amid a flurry of data releases out of the US. Consistent with Fed Chair Powell’s... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Monetary policy forecast changes, Korea inflation We are pushing back the timing of when we think the central banks of the Philippines and Indonesia will cut interest rates. Although inflation is within target in both countries and domestic demand is... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary-EU tensions cool, Czech currency valuation Hungary dropped its veto against the EU's financing package for Ukraine on Thursday, ending a week of uncertainty that added downside risks to the currency. Provided the easing in tensions is... 2nd February 2024 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update The worst may be over for the Australian and NZ dollars We don’t expect the Australian and New Zealand dollars – which have been two of the worst-performing G10 currencies this year – to fall much further. 2nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily It’s about the end, not the start Despite the Bank of England (BoE) following the Fed in pushing back against imminent rate cuts, Gilt and Treasury yields are on track to post big falls today. That partly reflects renewed concerns... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two points on the Fed and financial markets Ahead of the first Fed meeting of 2024, we think there are two points for investors to note about how the central bank might affect markets this year. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect “safe” assets to rally a bit more over the next couple of years, largely... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets are not braced for how far inflation will fall Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt... 30th January 2024 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally takes a breather ahead of Fed and key US data The US dollar seems set to remain within a tight range against most major currencies this week. At face value, the stronger-than-expected GDP data out of the US might point to a return to “higher for... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US economy not threatening to prick a stock market bubble Similar to the late 1990s, we think the economic backdrop in the US won’t stand in the way of a bubble inflating in the S&P 500. But unlike then, we doubt it will help the dollar much. 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Focus Would a US equity bubble coincide with a stronger dollar (again)? We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed... 25th January 2024 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar grinds higher alongside rising equities and UST yields The US dollar’s rebound has gained momentum this week amid hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and more evidence out of the US – notably retail sales and jobless claims – of continued resilience in... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect China’s markets to stay under pressure for long We project decent near-term gains in China’s equities, think long-dated CGB yields will finish the year around their current levels, and expect the renminbi to rally against the US dollar. In view of... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
