Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi public finances and fiscal outlook, Egypt-IMF latest Figures published this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 and we expect another deficit this year. While the government shouldn’t struggle to finance this, if oil prices... 15th February 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Weakness in the yen looks overdone to us The rise in US bond yields has put renewed pressure on the yen, but we think further downside is limited. We still expect Treasury yields to resume their downward trend and for the yen to benefit most... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to use FX interventions more sparingly Chairman Thomas Jordan’s recent comments about the franc raise questions over whether the SNB might use FX interventions to loosen monetary conditions. But we think policymakers will use the policy... 13th February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar inches higher even as US equities hit new milestone While the dollar has fallen back a touch over the past couple of days, it has held on to most of its post-payrolls gains. The DXY index is now up about 3% on the year, having regained roughly half its... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The “carry trade” in currencies may have run its course “High-carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have not been immune to broad-based dollar strength so far this year, and we think they have further to fall. 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech euro adoption, Glapinski turns hawkish The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency union would be outweighed by the... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month, easing from 33.6% y/y in December to 29.9% y/y in January. We think inflation will continue to slow this year, but a looming... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What the “dollar smile” means in the Fed’s “last mile” While not our base case, continued strength in the US economy would probably be a tailwind for the US dollar over the coming months. But even in that event, we think the dollar would eventually weaken... 7th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen... 7th February 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Chile seize the green transition opportunity? Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile... 6th February 2024 · 21 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Can “King Dollar” draw investors’ gaze from “Goldilocks”? The DXY index seems set to close this week at its strongest level in almost two months, breaking out of a narrow range amid a flurry of data releases out of the US. Consistent with Fed Chair Powell’s... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Monetary policy forecast changes, Korea inflation We are pushing back the timing of when we think the central banks of the Philippines and Indonesia will cut interest rates. Although inflation is within target in both countries and domestic demand is... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary-EU tensions cool, Czech currency valuation Hungary dropped its veto against the EU's financing package for Ukraine on Thursday, ending a week of uncertainty that added downside risks to the currency. Provided the easing in tensions is... 2nd February 2024 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update The worst may be over for the Australian and NZ dollars We don’t expect the Australian and New Zealand dollars – which have been two of the worst-performing G10 currencies this year – to fall much further. 2nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily It’s about the end, not the start Despite the Bank of England (BoE) following the Fed in pushing back against imminent rate cuts, Gilt and Treasury yields are on track to post big falls today. That partly reflects renewed concerns... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
