Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle continues as yen weakens The sudden strengthening of the yen after it breached 150 against the dollar earlier this week has triggered speculation that the Ministry of Finance sold foreign exchange reserves to support the yen... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bonds in Australia, NZ & Canada could outperform Treasuries We think the yields of 10-year government bonds in Australia, New Zealand and Canada will diverge from the yield of 10-year US Treasuries – which they have tracked very closely this year – over time... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Slowing momentum in activity, the recent decline in employment, and the sharp falls in core CPI and services inflation in August are clear signs that higher interest rates are weighing more heavily on... 4th October 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Rapid Response What to make of the yen intervention Whether or not Japan's Ministry of Finance confirms that it intervened in the foreign exchange market today, the direction the currency moves over the coming months will be determined primarily by... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update The impact of tighter policy on financial stability By putting upward pressure on JGB yields and the yen, tighter monetary policy could lead to falls in the value of bonds and overseas assets held by Japanese investors. Insurance companies and pension... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” may not see the new year The higher-for-longer narrative took hold over the third quarter, pushing bonds and equities down in most markets. But we doubt that this narrative will last. We expect bond markets to rebound as... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally at risk of reversal as tailwinds fade The week is set to end with the US dollar a bit higher against most currencies and the DXY Index just below fresh year-to-date highs. The dollar’s latest gains coincide with yet another week of rising... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a... 29th September 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s botched communications, CLP selloff The mixed messages between the statement and the minutes to Brazil's central bank meeting earlier this month seem to be a reflection of divisions on Copom between hawks and doves. We think the more... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pressure on the pound to persist We think the markets are wrong to expect the Fed to keep interest rates at their peak for almost as long as the Bank of England. If so, then the recent downward pressure on the pound from the decline... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Emerging industries won’t replace property The leadership's recent promotion of "new-type industrialisation" has led to suggestions that emerging new manufacturing sectors like green technology could take the place of property as drivers of... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The trouble before the bubble Both “safe” and “risky” assets have struggled during Q3 so far, as “risk-free” yields have risen. We expect the fortunes of safe assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely informed by our... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Dollar’s “stronger for longer” rally may run out of road The US dollar’s record run of 10 consecutive weekly gains has brought it to its strongest level since last December, and prompted renewed talk of FX intervention in Asia. We think that market... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) We suspect the pound will fall from $1.22 now to $1.20 by the end of this year. That’s not due to lower interest rate expectations in the UK compared to the US or the euro-zone, as we think the UK... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Oil price rise not a major threat to external position The narrowing in India’s current account deficit in the four quarters to Q2 was mainly due to the shrinking of the goods trade deficit. Looking ahead, the recent jump in oil prices won’t prevent the... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Gains from Nigeria’s policy shift at risk of evaporating Nigeria’s policy shift has stalled in recent weeks as officials have responded to a growing political backlash by reverting to the interventionist tendencies of the Buhari administration. The result... 28th September 2023 · 5 mins read
