Capital Daily Two points on the Fed and financial markets Ahead of the first Fed meeting of 2024, we think there are two points for investors to note about how the central bank might affect markets this year. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect “safe” assets to rally a bit more over the next couple of years, largely... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets are not braced for how far inflation will fall Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt... 30th January 2024 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally takes a breather ahead of Fed and key US data The US dollar seems set to remain within a tight range against most major currencies this week. At face value, the stronger-than-expected GDP data out of the US might point to a return to “higher for... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US economy not threatening to prick a stock market bubble Similar to the late 1990s, we think the economic backdrop in the US won’t stand in the way of a bubble inflating in the S&P 500. But unlike then, we doubt it will help the dollar much. 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Focus Would a US equity bubble coincide with a stronger dollar (again)? We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed... 25th January 2024 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar grinds higher alongside rising equities and UST yields The US dollar’s rebound has gained momentum this week amid hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and more evidence out of the US – notably retail sales and jobless claims – of continued resilience in... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect China’s markets to stay under pressure for long We project decent near-term gains in China’s equities, think long-dated CGB yields will finish the year around their current levels, and expect the renminbi to rally against the US dollar. In view of... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in Gilt yields and sterling may not last Although Gilt yields remain elevated and sterling resilient, we expect both to fall over the course of 2024 as disinflationary pressures build in the UK. 18th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2024) Capital inflows into EM bond and equity markets have eased off a little recently, but they are still running around their highest level in over three years. And taken together with the narrowing of... 18th January 2024 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily China’s faltering economy need not mean a weaker renminbi We still forecast the renminbi to make ground against the US dollar by the end of this year, despite the seemingly stiff headwinds it faces. 17th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We think sterling has further to fall against the US dollar While sterling has outperformed other G10 currencies amid the dollar sell-off over the past couple of months, we expect it to reverse its gains against the greenback as short-term Gilt yields edge... 16th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: What to expect from financial markets in 2024 1706108400 Will US equities continue to lead the pack in 2024? How will monetary policymaking affect the level of yields? What will this mean for FX markets?
