US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.) House price growth is finally showing signs of slowing, in line with measures of housing market activity which peaked at the start of the year. Soaring mortgage rates are shutting some buyers out of... 28th June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Cost inflation to ease alongside new home volumes After reaching a record-high in June, we think that inflation in builders’ costs will soon start to ease. But even as cost pressures subside, construction volumes will slump as the housing market... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update The anatomy of a housing market downturn Measures of housing market activity and prices tend to follow a predictable sequence in downturns. In this Update we highlight the key US and UK variables that clients should follow to track the... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) New home sales rose in May, bucking widespread signs of a housing market slowdown. But given the volatility in the data we wouldn’t put too much weight on one month’s reading. After all, new home... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Surging mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in May to their lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns two years ago. And with mortgage rates set to rise to 6.5% by... 21st June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Withdrawal of affordability test is a wise move We suspect that the main reason for the hasty withdrawal of the Financial Policy Committee’s mortgage affordability test is that it was on course to become a severe constraint on many buyers’... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surge in mortgage rates makes house price falls likely We have previously argued that a mortgage rate of above 6% represents the threshold at which house price falls become likely. With rates recently rising above that level, we are therefore revising... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Rising mortgage rates begin to take their toll The rise in mortgage rates from a low of 1.5% last November to 1.8% in April is beginning to weigh on home purchase demand, with the new buyer enquiries balance of the RICS survey dropping into... 20th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update House prices to slump by 20% The Bank of Canada’s hawkishness, a widening of mortgage spreads, and news that at least one lender is restricting new loan applications suggest the outlook for house prices is worse than we... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) Housing starts in May recorded their largest month-on-month decline since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. A fall in housing demand due to higher mortgage rates is occurring at the same time as... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Existing home sales set for a sharper fall Leading indicators are pointing to a large fall in existing home sales. For example, the recent sharp decline in the NAR buyer traffic balance is consistent with a fall in sales to 4.5m annualised... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q1 22) The detailed quarterly mortgage lending data from the Bank of England confirmed that the squeeze on lenders margins intensified at the start of the year, suggesting that mortgage rates will continue... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are the Government’s housing reforms? The Prime Minister last week announced a trio of policies aimed at reversing the decline in home ownership since the financial crisis. We doubt the schemes will make a big difference, although more... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing demand falls as mortgage rates rise Housing activity is slowing in the face of higher mortgage interest rates. Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped to a two-year low in May, existing homes sales have declined in each of the... 9th June 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (May) Softening demand in the RICS survey is a sure sign that rising mortgage rates are now putting prospective buyers off. Together with steady supply, that left the survey consistent with house prices... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May) The second consecutive fall in the construction PMI in May points to a sustained slowdown in development activity. And with the new orders balance easing and optimism of future demand declining, a... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
