Canada Economics Update Fall in house prices to contribute to lower CPI inflation The 10% fall in house prices that we expect over the next 12 months will also help to pull down CPI inflation, via its impact on shelter costs. Admittedly, shelter inflation is unlikely to decline... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook House prices heading for a fall If we are right that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates to 3.00% to stamp out inflation then we are on the cusp of the fastest increase in mortgage rates since the late 1980s. That... 13th May 2022 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) The housing market shrugged off the effects of rising mortgage rates and the cost-of-living crisis in April as intense competition between buyers bid up prices further. However, with mortgage rates... 12th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rate rise hits housing market activity The rise in mortgage rates, to a 12-year high in mid-April, is now starting to weigh on housing market activity, with new and existing home sales falling back over the past couple of months. With... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Cracks in housing market risk turning into chasms The slump in home sales in April, combined with the unexpected fall in hours worked, point to downside risks to GDP last month. While hours worked are set to rebound in May, there is likely to be much... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Apr.) The construction PMI for April showed that building activity remained solid, but that the pace of growth has slowed. An easing in new orders growth also hints at a further slowdown ahead, as the... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) In contrast to Nationwide’s measure of house price inflation, there was no sign of house price growth slowing in the Halifax figures for April. But with mortgage rates only just starting to climb to... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in rates to bring more vacant homes to market Homebuyers looking for more space were contending with low numbers of larger homes for sale in the first quarter, not helped by an apparent rise in investor demand for bigger properties. But rising... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Spring market brings deep freeze for home sales The steep declines in home sales across Canada’s major cities reinforces our view that a downturn in residential investment will prevent the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates by as much as... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The sharp rise in mortgage rates over the past couple of months, to a 12-year high of 5.37% in the middle of April, is now weighing on mortgage demand. Home purchase applications dropped to their... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) Unchanged mortgage approvals in March showed that the housing market remained buoyant throughout the first quarter. But the emerging trend of rising mortgage rates on new loans rising will only... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Home sales and prices to cool as affordability worsens Mortgage rates have risen faster than we originally anticipated and we now expect them to peak at 5.6% in mid-2023. That’s below the level of around 6% which we think risks tiggering a housing market... 29th April 2022 · 18 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) The slowdown in house price inflation in April adds to signs that the housing market is beginning to cool and suggests that the peak in house price inflation is now behind us. We expect house prices... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices will fall in 2023 and 2024 Our new, higher, interest rate forecasts mean that we now expect house prices to fall marginally in 2023 and 2024. While there are risks on both sides, our base case is that prices drop by 5% overall... 27th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) Month-on-month house price growth rose to a record high in February, as households desperate to buy before interest rates increased bid up the price of those few homes for sale. But the surge in... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
