UK Housing Market Update Buyers respond to higher rates by borrowing less Higher interest rates have begun to reduce the size of mortgage that buyers take out. As two-thirds of buyers rely on a mortgage, that will decrease most buyers’ budgets and put further downward... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The marginal decline in existing home sales in January supports our view that housing market activity is reaching a trough. But growing economic headwinds and stretched affordability mean sales will... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Price correction gathering pace While the recent economic data have surprised on the upside, property market indicators were broadly worse than expected in Q4. Occupier demand softened, particularly in the office and apartment... 17th February 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Single-family housing starts dropped back in January and the permits data add weight to our view that more weakness is to come. We think that starts will edge lower in the coming months, before an... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Property will be part of the post-COVID revival The roots of the crisis in China’s property sector lie in the worsening long-term outlook for demand. This has not improved. But sales started the year so beaten down that a short-run cyclical... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growing signs affordability will constrain rental demand We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Affordability won’t return to its post-GFC level Our forecasts for house prices, mortgage rates and incomes over the next few years mean affordability will remain relatively stretched compared with the past 15 years. But there is good reason to... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of a trough in housing demand There are growing signs that housing market activity may be close to a trough. The decline in mortgage rates over the past couple of months has led to a small improvement in affordability and a rise... 12th January 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales increased for the second month in a row in November. That is at odds with other measures of market activity, which have fallen sharply in response to the jump in mortgage rates. We... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales experienced their largest drop in nine months in November, as October’s spike in mortgage rates fed through to sales. But mortgage rates have since dropped back and are likely to... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family housing starts continued to fall in November as weak new home demand weighed on homebuilder confidence. We expect this to push starts down to a trough of 650,000 annualised in the coming... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Total returns to turn negative in 2023, led by apartments The sharp rise in interest rates this year has prompted a price correction, which is now coming through in valuation-based indices. Combined with the mild recession we are forecasting for 2023, this... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q3 22) The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that demand was resilient to rising mortgage rates at first. Loan-to-income ratios crept up despite rising financing costs. But with interest rates on... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth set to fall back to earth The single-family rental market has been on a roll since the GFC and the pandemic provided a further boost. Nonetheless, while it may hold up slightly better than multifamily over the next year or so... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demand for all housing tenures to drop back Our forecast for a drop in house prices means renting looks a better option than buying for any holding period under 10 years. While this will encourage some potential buyers to rent instead, we doubt... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices start to fall: your questions answered Following the Nationwide data showing a larger-than-expected fall in house prices in November, we hosted an online Drop-In on 1st December to discuss how far prices could fall and what the downturn... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
