UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul.) The fourth consecutive decline in the headline construction PMI took the index below 50 for the first time since January 2021. While driven by an idiosyncratic drop in civil engineering activity, the... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Both refinancing and home purchase activity continued to trend lower in July, with the latter down by around 30% since the start of the year. Against a backdrop of stretched affordability and record... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) While the rise in the annual rate of house price growth from 10.7% in June to 11.0% in July will make most of the headlines that was driven by base effects. Instead, we think the main takeaway from... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Allowing for seasonal swings, house prices in July fell as much as they did at the height of the 2017-2019 downturn. With soaring mortgage rates weighing on affordability, prices will continue to fall... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tight supply limits threat from rising construction The current surge in homes under construction has few parallels with the building boom that preceded the house price crash in the late 2000s. The build-up of homes under construction has largely been... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target dropped, property rescue plans The Politburo this week quietly abandoned the GDP growth target while promising to support the property sector and ensure that stalled projects are completed. The immediate goal is to boost confidence... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Deteriorating economic outlook hits sentiment We now think that the reduction in consumer real incomes due to high inflation will push the economy into recession this year. But the Bank of England is likely to have to keep on raising interest... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals slipped back to below 2019 levels in June supporting our view that higher interest rates will cause housing market activity to slump over the next two years. Indeed, further rises... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (May/Jun.) Case-Shiller reported a slowdown in month-on-month house price growth in May, adding to the signs that the housing market is cooling rapidly. The annual growth rate dropped below 20% and the sharp... 26th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Rents to grow at twice their 2010s rate this decade Although less widely reported than the house price boom, rents have been setting records too. The 11% y/y rise in the Zoopla rents index in Q1 was the fastest since the series began in 2006. That... 26th July 2022 · 18 mins read
Capital Daily Central banks may yet put more upward pressure on bond yields We expect elevated inflation to keep developed market (DM) central banks hiking rates aggressively this year, even as economies slow sharply, in some cases falling into recession. Accordingly, we... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What if homebuilding doesn’t slump? Our view that GDP growth will slow below potential next year assumes one of the sharpest falls in dwellings investment in Australia’s modern history. However, this Update explains why dwellings... 25th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation finally peaks CPI inflation has finally peaked but this will not be enough to prevent further large interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, especially as there is little evidence yet that the weakening housing... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing strains, migrant job losses Regulators have called on banks to step up lending to developers. But with banks becoming more cautious about issuing mortgages in the face of mortgage boycotts and local governments tightening... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes and recessions loom large The near-term economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are set for mild recessions in late 2022 and early 2023. This is partly a function of external... 21st July 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales dropped again in June, taking them to below their pre-COVID peak. With affordability looking as stretched as it was during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), home buyer sentiment... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
