Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul.) The further decline in home sales in June and the record monthly fall in house prices did little to affect construction activity, with housing starts once again outperforming expectations last month... 19th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family housing starts fell by a sizeable 8.1% m/m in June, following a 9.0% m/m drop in May. With rising mortgage rates continuing to weigh on demand, homebuilder confidence plummeted in July... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s shock tactics carry significant risks The Bank of Canada justified its 100 bp interest rate hike on the basis that front-loading hikes has historically raised the chance of a “soft landing”. With the pace of house price declines already... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing activity contracts even as rates stabilise The upward trend in mortgage rates took a breather over the past month, but that didn’t provide much of a boost to housing market activity. Existing home sales have fallen for four months in a row... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2022) The Q2 credit conditions survey shows that lenders will not loosen credit conditions to keep the house price boom going like they did in 2004-2007. Indeed, despite the fact demand is expected to slump... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) There was an unmistakeable cooling in the housing market in June as the new buyer enquiries balance slipped further into negative territory. With mortgage rates continuing to rise and the economy on... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Should we be worried about refinancing risk? The impact of rising mortgage rates and the hit to real incomes from high inflation have given rise to fears of mortgage repayment difficulties when existing borrowers come to remortgage. But the... 11th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jun.) The substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in June was surprising given the softening in the Nationwide figures in the same month, and the deterioration in leading indicators of housing... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A more forceful 75 bp hike The recent acceleration in wage growth and rise in long-run inflation expectations leave little doubt that, despite the drop back in commodity prices, the Bank of Canada will follow through with a... 6th July 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for home purchase saw a slight recovery over the course of June as mortgage interest rates eased back. But demand remains depressed compared to its pre-COVID-19 level and a... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun.) The third consecutive monthly fall in the construction PMI suggests that that growth in development activity is slowing. The near-term outlook has also deteriorated, with growth in new orders easing... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Looser mortgage standards won’t keep the party going In contrast to the mid-2000s, there seems little chance of a significant loosening in mortgage lending standards in response to higher interest rates today. Traditional banks have not forgotten the... 1st July 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals remained relatively weak in May supporting our view that higher interest rates are now starting to curb activity. As mortgage rates are set to rise further over the next year, this... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn to weigh on activity The housing downturn is now in full swing. While that hasn’t prevented a solid rise in consumption in Q2, we think falling wealth will be a drag on consumer spending next year. What’s more, our... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The monthly decline in house prices in June was the largest since 2019 but is unlikely to be the sharpest decline in the current downturn. We think house prices will eventually fall by 15% from their... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) Monthly house price inflation slowed in June to its lowest since last September according to the Nationwide, while the annual rate continued to edge lower. That is consistent with our view of steady... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
