US Commercial Property Update Affordability adds downside risk to big 6 apartments We think migration patterns of footloose workers will continue to play the largest role in driving the rental outlook across metros. But rent as a share of income will also have a bearing, weighing on... 9th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) The small slip in the Halifax House Price index in April bought it a little more in line with the Nationwide figures. But prices remain remarkably resilient to the largest rise in mortgage rates since... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Takeaways from our housing roundtables Alongside the publication of our Q2 UK Housing Outlook this week, we held a series of roundtable meetings for clients in London. Here we sum up our thoughts on three key questions which recurred... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) New home sales jumped in March and house prices increased 0.2% m/m in February. The continued resilience of the housing market means the risk to our forecast of an 8% drop in house prices are now to... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates unlikely to fall further As mortgage lenders’ net interest margins are already very narrow, the increase in market interest rates over the past fortnight means that the decline in mortgage rates from their spike after the... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Capital values to fall 25% in San Fran, Seattle and D.C. We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an... 12th April 2023 · 13 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office values set to tank over the next two years We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping... 6th April 2023 · 23 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest? While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re... 4th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The modest recovery in new home sales continued in February reflecting support from price reductions and incentives offered by homebuilders, as well as a tight existing home market pushing buyers to... 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: What are the risks around commercial real estate? 1680015600 A degree of calm has returned to markets, but investors remain nervous about where the next blow-up could occur – and attention is increasingly focused on commercial real estate. But are the c
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) Existing home sales rebounded in February as buyers took advantage of falling mortgage rates. Weak mortgage applications data point to sales dropping back again in March, but with turmoil in the... 21st March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) Single-family housing starts continued their weak start to the year in February with a marginal month-on-month increase. While forward looking indicators appear to have turned a corner, homebuilders... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rebound in mortgage rates hits housing demand Stronger-than-expected economic data in January led to a rebound in market interest rate expectations and a jump in mortgage rates from 6.2% at the start of February to 6.8% in March. That drove... 14th March 2023 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Update Poor affordability key to bigger price falls in the West In this Update we examine the implications of affordability for house prices at the market level. Despite sunbelt markets seeing the strongest house price growth over the past couple of years... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) Stronger-than-expected economic data led to a resurgence in mortgage rates in February, which put a stop to a tentative recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase. This points to sales... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) Price reductions and generous incentives offered by homebuilders helped new home sales continue to outperform the wider market in January. But a renewed rise in mortgage rates will weigh on new home... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
