US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (May.) Single-family starts saw the largest monthly increase in nearly three years in May, suggesting homebuilders have been responding to the recent rises in new home sales. We still expect a mild recession... 20th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q1 23) With mortgage rates surging, the number of loans issued to buy a home dropped sharply in Q1, with Buy-to-Let lending seeing the most severe drop. Those that did press ahead with a home purchase... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) The significant improvement in the RICS survey in May echoed the pause in house price falls in the past few months. But the survey also showed an increase in supply, which could make prices more... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi mortgages and 2022 census This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting will be closely watched. We expect that the group will stand pat on Sunday, but OPEC+ has a history of springing surprises. Meanwhile, the Kingdom’s 2022 Census revealed... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response BoE Mortgage Lending (April 23) The renewed decline in mortgage approvals in April will have dashed hopes that the jump in March marked the start of a recovery. Moreover, with mortgage rates now on their way back up, lending is... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (May 23) House prices flattened off in May after a rise in April. But with mortgage rates now on their way back up we suspect that the stabilisation in prices over the last couple of months will soon give way... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar.) In line with the stronger-than-expected economic data releases at the start of the year, house prices proved resilient in March. But we expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, which will... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rise in mortgage rates will trigger renewed downturn The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast suggests that mortgage rates will return to a similar peak as last autumn by the end of the year. That would undermine the recent pick-up in mortgage... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Portland, San Francisco and Seattle off to a bad start Metro level data for Q1 2023 showed the slowdown in occupier demand was widespread, with no market consistently outperforming across the sectors in terms of absorption. While office and industrial... 24th May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Weak Q1, but bigger price falls to come in Q2 The economy has been relatively resilient so far, but with the banking turmoil set to weigh on activity, we continue to expect a recession this year. Slower growth has already translated to softer... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation (May 23) The larger than anticipated rebound in mortgage approvals in March and a slowdown (or even partial reversal) of house price falls suggested that the housing market downturn may have ended much earlier... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales fell back towards their recent lows in April, not helped by a very tight inventory. The high cost of a new mortgage is acting to discourage homeowners with a low fixed-rate... 18th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Homebuilders have turned their attention to finishing off the large number of homes under construction rather than starting new ones, keeping single-family starts close to their recent lows in April... 17th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Longer mortgage terms ease affordability constraints Borrowing over a longer period significantly reduces monthly mortgage payments. So the accelerated shift towards loans with a term of 35 or 40 years rather than 25 has probably helped to mitigate the... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) In contrast to signs of a stabilisation in house prices and sales volumes in other indicators, the RICS survey remained downbeat in April. In particular, the renewed fall in the new buyer enquiries... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
