Global Economics Update PBOC and Fed policy loosening won’t hinge on tariffs President Trump’s claim that the PBOC will loosen policy in the months ahead may prove accurate, but this will be a justified response to a weaker economy and not a direct retort to tariffs. And while... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) The April activity and spending data were weaker than anticipated across the board, confirming our doubts about the durability of March’s strength and increasing the likelihood of further policy... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons for China’s modest retaliation We think the small scale of China’s planned tariff hikes reflects three factors – a desire not to escalate tensions, the limited scope for further tariffs and China’s ability to use other tools to... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher tariffs do not change our already bearish view A total breakdown in US-China trade talks would undoubtedly be a further negative for the prices of most industrial metals. However, regardless of the latest tariff increase, we had already expected a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff hike, fiscal support, inflation risks The US hiked tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. This escalation in trade tensions comes at a challenging time for the Chinese economy, with export growth already weak, fiscal support waning and swine... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The slowdown in credit growth last month underlines the need for further monetary policy easing in order to keep credit expanding fast enough to provide a floor to economic growth. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Both official measures of inflation picked up last month but this was mostly due to supply-side factors and therefore shouldn’t be interpreted as clear evidence of stronger domestic demand. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.4% and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports flattered by stockbuilding Aside from oil, China’s commodity imports have generally been soft since the start of this year and there are now signs that export volumes are starting to come off the boil. Imports may pick up later... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) Export growth last month was disappointing, with Trump’s latest tariff threats adding to the downside risks ahead. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices helped April’s import values beat expectations... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update “No trade deal” back on the cards The risk of an escalation in the tariff war between the US and China has negative implications for our already subdued outlook for the global economy and commodity prices this year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Four implications of the re-escalation in trade tensions President Trump has threatened an imminent expansion of tariffs against China. We expect this to result in stronger headwinds to growth, more policy easing, a weaker renminbi and a stock market rout. 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Targeted RRR cut to shore up lending growth Bank lending to small firms should receive a sizeable boost from the planned reduction in the required reserve ratio for many rural banks, pushing up overall bank loan growth in the process. While... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Financial sector opening, bad debt disclosures Efforts to open the door to more foreign participation in China’s financial sector took another step forward this week. But without broader free-market reforms, foreign entrants may still struggle to... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The April survey data suggest China’s economy has entered a softer patch and underpin our view that most industrial and oil prices will ease back in the coming months. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) After jumping in March, both manufacturing PMIs fell back in April, disappointing hopes for a further recovery and reinforcing our view that there are still some downside risks to near-term activity. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
