China Economics Focus China’s next steps in the trade war China is left with few good options to hit back at the US in ways that wouldn’t be self-defeating. Rather than direct retaliation, officials are therefore likely to focus their efforts on broader... 5th August 2019 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC weaponizes the renminbi The PBOC has allowed the renminbi to fall to its weakest level in a decade in response to trade tensions. It appears to have decided that, given the increasingly dim prospects of a trade deal with the... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The trade war is about to hit China’s surplus The trade war between the US and China has made barely any difference to the scale of their bilateral trade imbalance, which was President Trump’s original concern. But China is reaching the limits of... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly US tariffs, PBOC easing, property controls President Trump’s latest threat to put further tariffs on Chinese goods is unlikely to trigger the hoped-for concessions from China. With the direct hit to China’s economy still manageable, President... 2nd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs still point to weakness ahead China’s official and unofficial PMIs both rose in July, but they remain consistent with a renewed slowdown in economic activity, which will be a key factor weighing on commodity prices later this year... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) PMI readings for Emerging Asia were slightly more positive at the start of Q3, but the big picture is that they remain low by past standards and there are few signs of a meaningful turnaround yet. 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest Caixin survey suggests that factory activity remained weak last month but that downward pressure eased somewhat, painting a similar picture to the official manufacturing PMI released... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (July) The latest surveys remain consistent with a renewed slowdown in growth. Downward pressure on factory activity eased this month, but momentum in services and construction weakened. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China FDI, PBOC governor talks rates US-China trade tensions have so far had a limited impact on bilateral direct investment. Chinese investment in the US stagnated last year but it had stalled even before Trump started to get tough on... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor A strong end to Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth jumped at the end of last quarter. But data issues raise questions about the true extent of the pick-up. And mounting domestic and external... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown set to resume China’s economy has stabilised in recent months thanks to surprisingly resilient property construction. But real estate developers will probably scale back the pace of new projects before long. And... 22nd July 2019 · 29 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property construction boom is fizzling out China’s economy has faced multiple headwinds over the past year, but it has also received a significant – and underappreciated – boost from accelerating property construction. Property developers... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Leveraging up again Nominal GDP growth and credit growth almost converged at the end of 2018, but the gap between them has widened again this year as growth has slowed and policymakers have shifted their focus away from... 17th July 2019 · 12 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) A stronger end to the quarter didn’t prevent growth from slowing in Q2 and we see more weakness on the horizon. Activity held up better than anticipated, but we expect this strength to be temporary. 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly People’s Bank to follow the Fed The Fed has all-but-confirmed that it will cut rates at its upcoming meeting on 31st July. The PBOC is likely to follow suit, perhaps the next day, with a reduction to its reverse repo rates, the... 12th July 2019 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Exports declined last month as a result of the step-up in US tariffs in May and waning global demand. Imports also weakened on the back of a renewed domestic slowdown. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
