China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) A shift toward fiscal easing helped to push up credit growth last month but the pace of lending remained relatively weak and still looks consistent with a further slowdown in economic growth. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Lower oil prices kept headline inflation stable last month despite a further rise in pork prices. But with pig stocks still tumbling we think increases in consumer prices will start to accelerate... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Set for a challenging second half of the year EM GDP growth has slowed sharply and, while it should bottom out soon, growth will remain very weak. Indeed, our forecasts lie below the consensus across much of the emerging world. 8th July 2019 · 25 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus is back, property curbs still in place Last month’s directive to boost infrastructure spending appears to have had an immediate result, with data this week showing a surge in issuance of infrastructure financing bonds. But easing remains a... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the EM investment slump EM investment growth probably slowed to its weakest rate in twenty years in early 2019, although most of that seems to be related to tighter financial conditions and low commodity prices rather than... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs do not bode well for commodity prices Another month of weak PMI readings confirms a renewed slowdown in China’s economy. While optimism surrounding the US-China trade truce is currently buoying commodity prices, we think slower growth in... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (June) The latest survey data suggest that China’s economy is coming under renewed pressure as a result of cooling foreign demand and waning fiscal support, which should trigger further monetary easing. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly G20 truce, armyworm epidemic Trump and Xi will meet tomorrow and may agree to hold off imposing new tariffs for the time being. While this would be a positive outcome for China’s economy and markets in the short-run, any gains... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth holding up surprisingly well Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) continues to suggest that economic growth has stabilised in recent months, with stronger construction activity helping to mask a slowdown in other sectors. But with... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update China This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for China’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 25th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Tariff impact intensifies Tariffs have weighed heavily on China’s exports to the US in recent months. Shipments of goods in the $50bn list were almost 30% lower in the first four months of 2019 than they were a year before... 25th June 2019 · 12 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC rate cuts appear imminent The People’s Bank has pushed down overnight interbank rates to multi-year lows. This is partly a response to market jitters following the Baoshang Bank takeover and may partially reverse in the coming... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth running at a three-year low EM GDP growth slowed to just 3.3% y/y in Q1, its weakest pace since the first half of 2016, and our Tracker suggests that it remained sluggish in Q2. Growth should pick up a little in the second half... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Baoshang reverberations, WTO defeat In a Focus last month, we discussed what we see as the most plausible hard landing scenario for China: troubles at a small bank that spread to the interbank market and trigger a systemic banking... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch What our new view on trade means for commodities We no longer expect the US and China to strike a deal on trade, and now forecast that the two countries’ dispute will escalate further. In this Commodities Watch, we lay out what our new view on trade... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Old-school stimulus, HK protests, PBOC still selling FX China’s policymakers are returning to the familiar playbook of local government infrastructure spending to shore up growth but still, it appears, on a relatively small scale. Meanwhile, despite the... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
