Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last year’s fortunes. While we expect the EM monetary …
20th May 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) …
15th May 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (April 2024) …
30th April 2024
China Chart Pack (Apr. 24) …
We think the Fed and most other developed markets (DM) central banks will be able to ease monetary policy this year and next more than investors currently anticipate. DM bond yields will end 2024 below their current levels, putting downward pressure on …
29th April 2024
The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month has generally come alongside an upward revision to interest rate expectations across Emerging Europe. However, we think analysts may still be overestimating how far …
25th April 2024
India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data suggest that the strength of economic activity has continued through to the eve of the election. Headline inflation is grinding back to the RBI’s 4% …
24th April 2024
The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year. There will be bigger macro consequences from …
Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last year’s fortunes. While we expect the EM monetary …
18th April 2024
China’s economy continued to recover in the first months of the new year. And we think fiscal support will keep supporting growth in the near-term. That said, the property sector remains a drag on the economy, and we expect a sharp downward adjustment in …
3rd April 2024
Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) …
28th March 2024
Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most countries it is now back within central bank …
27th March 2024
The past month has seen Egypt’s economic crisis turn around with the devaluation of the pound, aggressive interest rate hike, and unlocking of a new IMF deal. There have been false dawns before, but this shift back toward economic orthodoxy feels more …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (March 2024) …
26th March 2024
India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data suggest that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. Headline inflation has eased in recent months and we think it will reach the 4% midpoint …
GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here, we think the EM monetary easing cycle will broaden …
22nd March 2024
Our latest Latin America Chart Pack is embedded below. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will disappoint consensus expectations. The disinflation process …
13th March 2024
Aggregate EM growth softened towards the end of last year and we think it will remain weak in 2024. But there will be divergence at the country level with growth slowing in those economies that outperformed in 2023 and growth picking up in last year’s …
29th February 2024
Economies in Central and Eastern Europe ended 2023 on a weak note, but the outlook for this year looks brighter. Lower inflation and interest rates should support a recovery in domestic demand over the coming quarters. In contrast, Turkey’s economy has …
China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property construction likely to continue to decline and …
Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) …
28th February 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (February 2024) …
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little this year but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s output cuts should gradually reverse from the end of this quarter but will keep a lid on economic …
26th February 2024
India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made a flying start to 2024 too. While inflation eased last month, we think it will be a slow grind back to the 4% midpoint of the RBI’s 2-6% target range. That …
22nd February 2024
Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
31st January 2024
Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023, but we think that the disinflation process is entering a more difficult phase in 2024 as demand is beginning to recover. While monetary easing cycles are likely to …
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf over the first half of …
30th January 2024
EM GDP growth weakened over the second half of 2023, and we expect growth to remain subdued this year. Some EMs that underperformed last year will see modest recoveries, but many of the economies where growth was surprisingly strong last year will slow by …
23rd January 2024
China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property construction likely to continue to decline and exports set …
28th December 2023
Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to central banks’ targets will take time and we think that monetary …
19th December 2023
18th December 2023
Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) …
EM GDP growth has started to weaken, and we expect activity to enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. While some economies that underperformed this year will start to recover, many of the EMs that fared surprisingly well in 2023 will slow by more …
15th December 2023
India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also that food inflation has picked up again, the RBI will …
13th December 2023
After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to reverse recent oil output cuts, while fiscal policy in the Gulf remains supportive. Outside of the Gulf, balance of payments …
28th November 2023
China’s economy is making headway again after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. … China Chart Pack (Nov. …
India’s economy continues to show resilience this year and annual GDP growth is likely to come in stronger than the 6.3% we had been forecasting. While inflation is well within the RBI’s tolerance range, the renewed surge in food prices in November is a …
23rd November 2023
Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in slower growth in 2024. Inflation will …
Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2023) …
21st November 2023
China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. … China Chart Pack (Oct. …
30th October 2023
After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to keep fiscal policy supportive. Outside of the Gulf, …
24th October 2023
Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in 2024. Inflation pressures look set to keep building and further interest rate hikes lie in store. In contrast, downturns across …
19th October 2023
EM GDP has held up well this year, but we expect growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. Inflation has surprised to the upside recently, which will delay the start of interest rate cutting cycles in some places. But we still expect easing cycles to …
India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although inflation has dropped back sharply to within the RBI’s target range, the outlook is still clouded by uncertainties related to food prices. This is a key risk …
18th October 2023
28th September 2023
Although EM growth held up well in H1, growth will disappoint over the coming quarters. Recent upside inflation surprises have pushed back the timing of rate cuts in some places, but we expect the EM monetary easing cycle to broaden out in H2. Strong wage …
22nd September 2023
Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in 2024. Inflation …
20th September 2023
India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. The onset of a severe El Niño and …
Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth (outside the pandemic) since 2016 this year as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment. Our GDP growth forecasts across the region are generally …
31st August 2023
