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A final hurrah Export growth accelerated in March, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods to the US ahead of “Liberation Day”. But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters. We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain …
14th April 2025
Loan growth no longer slowing Bank loan growth accelerated for the first time in over two years last month, helping to take broad credit growth to a 10-month high. While some further gains are likely, we still expect a more modest pick-up compared to …
Pause on reciprocal tariffs reduces risks for CEE President Trump’s 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs has reduced the scale of downside risks to the global economy, and our new working assumption is that US tariffs on most economies stay at the 10% …
11th April 2025
China rather than US trade big concern for Africa Africa’s direct damage from tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens, and financial spillovers materialise. After US President Trump dialed …
At some point a partial rollback in tariffs is likely… The effective US tariff rate on China started the year at 11% (based on 2024 weights). It is now at 145%. Earlier this week we noted that tariff rates above 100% would cause Chinese exports to the US …
Opportunities for India amid tariff chaos All of our analysis of the latest twists and turns in the trade war – notably President Trump’s decision to postpone reciprocal tariffs (bar China) for 90 days – can be found here . Of course, things are subject …
The direct trade impact of US import tariffs on Africa is likely to be limited, but there could be more harmful indirect effects via weaker growth in other key trading partners, lower commodity prices and/or a more challenging external financing …
10th April 2025
The troubles at Brazilian bank Banco Master that have grabbed the headlines recently seem to be contained and, by most measures, the banking sector as a whole appears to be in good shape. But there has been a sharp run-up in lending to households over the …
Trade war to exacerbate deflation Deflationary pressures persisted last month and will almost certainly deepen over the coming quarters as it becomes more difficult for Chinese firms to export their excess supply. CPI deflation eased from -0.7% y/y in …
Enter your own universal and specific tariff scenarios and see the impact on the effective tariff rate, inflation and GDP. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of …
RBI’s easing cycle will run further than most expect The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by another 25bps today to 6.00% comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation and the headwinds from US tariffs. But the …
9th April 2025
Unless they are rolled back, the latest US tariff hikes mean that China’s shipments to the US will more than halve over the coming years, even assuming the renminbi weakens to 8.00/$. This will reduce China’s GDP by somewhere between 1.0-1.5% depending on …
President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are particularly high on some of the lowest-income EMs, which are also among the most vulnerable to the suspension of US aid flows. That raises the risk of balance of payments strains, and also provides an opening for …
8th April 2025
Israel holds rates steady ahead of Trump-Netanyahu talks The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, and sounded a bit more hawkish than at its previous meeting despite highlighting possibly quite a large hit to economic …
7th April 2025
Tariffs unlikely to bring forward rate cuts The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, highlighted two-sided risks to inflation and economic activity from US trade …
A weaker renminbi, just not against the dollar China’s response today to President Trump’s 34% “reciprocal tariff” on China was more aggressive than we had anticipated . (Initial thoughts on Trump’s tariff on China can be found here .) The moves take the …
4th April 2025
If the US tariffs on imports from the EU announced this week are kept in place, our current assessment is that this will lower GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by 0.3-0.4%-pts on average over the coming year. Judging by the sharp …
Direct hit from Trump tariffs to be limited African economies will, for the most part, be relatively unaffected by US President Trump’s tariff announcement this week, at least directly. But it may cause indirect harm through lower commodity prices. And …
China has responded to US tariffs with an additional 34% tariff on all US goods, the most sweeping it has ever imposed. Some US companies have also been added to China’s unreliable entities list and export controls have been expanded. This is an …
Near-term hit from tariffs for India won’t be big Our response to the Liberation Day tariff announcements includes analysis of the global macro impact here , the financial market impact here , online briefings that can be viewed on demand here and various …
Mexico got off lightly from the tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday and the overall hit to the economy from US trade measures may be a bit smaller than we’d initially thought. Even so, we think growth will be very modest this year, perhaps just …
3rd April 2025
Softer inflation gives CBRT some breathing space The softer-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for March, of 38.1% y/y, suggests that the sell-off in the lira last month hasn’t exerted significant upwards pressure on consumer prices (yet). And as …
We’d already assumed substantial US tariffs on China in our forecasts. But the latest hikes take them even higher than we had anticipated. The economic hit to China will range between 0.5-1.0% of GDP depending on what happens to the exchange rate. China …
Quick action by the Turkish central bank appears to have stemmed pressure in Turkey’s financial markets after the recent sell-off. But the rapid depletion of FX reserves means that policymakers have less scope to act in the event of a renewed spike in …
2nd April 2025
NBP remains on hold, although case for rate cuts starting to build The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left is policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and while our forecast is for policy settings to remain unchanged throughout 2025, the risks of an …
The EM manufacturing PMI ticked up in March on the back of a pick-up in China as well as a continued recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. But tariffs present a major headwind to EMs’ industrial sectors, and the surveys already suggest that Mexico’s is …
1st April 2025
Underlying inflation problems in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America and perennial exchange rate worries in Indonesia mean that their central banks are, if anything, likely to react hawkishly to the effects of US import tariffs. Interest rates …
Central Europe recovering, Russia faltering The rise in the manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe in March adds to evidence that the region is recovering from its recent soft patch. In contrast, the drop in Russia’s PMI suggests the economy may be starting …
Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) …
31st March 2025
Services weakness holding back growth This report was first published on the 31 st March covering the official PMIs. We added commentary on the Caixin manufacturing PMI on 1 st April. The PMIs suggest that infrastructure spending is ramping up again and …
China Chart Pack (Mar. 25) …
28th March 2025
Trump’s auto tariffs to deal limited blow to SA South Africa finds itself in the firing line from US President Trump’s auto tariffs, but the macro impact will be limited and other developments over the past week have been more positive for the country’s …
Overview – Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower inflation and easing monetary policy. But …
Autos now in the crosshairs The Trump administration’s announcement of a 25% import tariff on autos and some auto parts will have a particularly large impact on Hungary and Slovakia. Our detailed response on Thursday to the tariff news can be found here . …
Concessions to Trump may not prove enough All eyes are now on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff plans, due to be unveiled on Wednesday 2 nd April. There is still huge uncertainty around what form reciprocal tariffs will take. The administration …
Overview – We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts across most of the region for this year and think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies will pick up pace going into 2026, despite the headwind from US tariffs. An end to the war in Ukraine …
27th March 2025
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2025) …
In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are most exposed with up to 1.6% of GDP at risk. But the …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight policy will all drag …
26th March 2025
Overview – Increased US tariffs will exacerbate a broader slowdown in exports. China’s economy will also face continued drags from the property downturn and wider deflationary dynamics. A sizeable fiscal loosening will provide a partial offset but won’t …
Easing cycle paused, and space for additional rate cuts narrows The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.75%, and we think that the scope for further interest rate cuts this year has become more limited. We had previously …
The outlook for EM GDP growth appears increasingly challenging and our growth forecasts for this year generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue although, outside Asia, high inflation means that interest rate cuts will be smaller …
MNB on hold, high inflation to tie new governors hands The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged today, at 6.50%, and we think its easing cycle will remain on pause throughout 2025 as inflation remains stuck above target. Analysts have …
25th March 2025
The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. It’s too early to conclude that any of the affected EMs …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed over January and February, driven by a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. Fiscal expenditure is set to pick up over the coming months, but that will largely be offset by the drag from US …
24th March 2025
Weak data to bolster calls for monetary easing The weaker-than-expected February retail sales data out of Poland suggests that the economy may have slowed a bit more sharply than we had been anticipating this quarter. While this won’t prompt the central …
Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix what ails the US balance of payments? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the show this week to tackle the various ideas around what the Trump administration could do to address long-standing global imbalances. He …
21st March 2025
Kenya and the IMF agree to disagree Kenya and the IMF abandoned talks over the ninth review of the country’s existing financing programs this week and, while a new deal is in the offing, public debt concerns are likely to build. It’s been clear for some …
Erdogan alarms investors The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency. Events are in flux at the moment, but there are three takeaways. The first is that the …
CBR sounds slightly less hawkish at it leaves rates on hold The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to leave its policy rate on hold at 21.00% today was accompanied by somewhat less hawkish communications. While we doubt the CBR will cut interest …
