Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The apartment market is on track to recover over our five-year forecast, with new supply falling back sharply, while demand remains solid. However, the size and speed of recovery will differ widely by region. The largest vacancy rate declines – around …
7th April 2025
We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3 rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here .) This Update contains answers to some of the questions that we received and links to several more …
3rd April 2025
The pandemic triggered an exodus from large cities in both the UK and US as households used the freedom of remote work to move to cheaper locations with larger homes. In the rental market, that trend has largely reversed, with younger households valuing …
We think markets are too optimistic about Fed rate cuts this year, meaning the recent dip in mortgage rates is just a temporary respite. We expect rates to rebound to 7% and hover around that level throughout the rest of the year. There is still room for …
25th March 2025
Small rebound in sales shows new home market still in good health After a large partly weather-driven fall in January, last month’s small rebound in new home sales was a little underwhelming but still illustrates that the market for new homes is in decent …
It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
House price inflation rises to five-month high The solid 0.5% m/m rise in house prices in January and accompanying pick-up in house price inflation to 4.7%, from 4.6%, confirms that the market has stopped cooling for now. While we still expect house price …
Unexpected rise not a sign of strength to come The small rise in existing home sales in February is unlikely to mark the start of a period of strength for buying activity given that purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a month or …
20th March 2025
Housing starts rebound but tariff concerns loom The sharp rebound in housing starts in February and healthy permit issuance shows that the housing market is still holding up well. Nonetheless, with tariff concerns continuing to weigh on homebuilders’ …
18th March 2025
Fall in applications signals a weak Spring sales outlook The sharp fall in home purchase mortgage applications in February confirms that the rebound in mortgage rates late last year is suppressing home purchase demand. Recent declines in Treasury yields …
5th March 2025
The ‘race for space’ following the pandemic and shift to remote work is evident in both the UK and US, with houses becoming more expensive relative to flats. And that premium for larger homes looks set to endure. While there may be a further small …
4th March 2025
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
Our updated analysis of the most attractive apartment markets for remote workers sees Austin nudge Nashville into second place after two years at the top of the table, with San Antonio climbing to third. On the other hand, Tampa fell from fourth to …
3rd March 2025
Harsh winter weather takes its toll on buyers The large fall in new home sales in January was to be expected given the disruption from the unseasonably severe winter weather. While sales should rebound this month, elevated mortgage rates will limit the …
26th February 2025
House price growth unexpectedly reaccelerates The stronger 0.5% m/m rise in house prices in December suggests sellers still have the upper hand despite more homes coming onto the market and relatively weak buyer demand. This raises the risk that we have …
25th February 2025
Weak start to 2025 a sign of things to come The fall in existing home sales in January reflects weak deal-making at the end of last year due to the surge in mortgage rates. Given that borrowing costs have stayed above 7% since then, we expect this …
21st February 2025
Weather partly to blame for decline in housing starts The decline in housing starts in January is not a major concern, as it comes after a surge in starts in December and appears partly driven by the unseasonably harsh weather. Encouragingly, permit …
19th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
We think the window for further Fed interest rate cuts has closed, so mortgage rates should remain near their current 7% level this year, before a little more relief arrives in 2026. There will still be room for sales to improve, aided by less restrictive …
Even if mortgage rates drop back slightly and house price growth cools over the next few years as we expect, renting will remain the more cost-effective option, supporting apartment demand. Southeast and West Coast apartment markets stand to gain the …
6th February 2025
This is the first in a series of pieces that revisit our pandemic-era forecasts about the future of global real estate markets and cities and explore how they will evolve in the coming years. This dedicated page highlights key analysis from our earlier …
5th February 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jump in applications does little to brighten bleak sales outlook The steep rise in home purchase mortgage applications in January left applications at their highest level since …
Housing market continues to cool The modest rise in house prices in November adds to the sense that the housing market is experiencing a bit of a slowdown amid weak buyer demand and gradually rising supply. We think this trend has a bit further to run, …
28th January 2025
Newbuild demand remains a bright spot in otherwise frozen market The 3.6% increase in new home sales in December wraps up a solid year for newbuild demand in an otherwise stagnant housing market, with sales up nearly 3% over 2024 as a whole. We expect new …
27th January 2025
Small rise in sales does not mark beginning of the recovery The small rise in existing home sales in December reflects deals that came together in September and October, when mortgage rates hit a nadir of 6.2%, getting across the line. Given the recent …
24th January 2025
Jump in starts consistent with growing optimism among builders The large rebound in housing starts and continued resilience of building permits in December provides some support to our forecast that starts will remain solid in the first half of the year. …
17th January 2025
The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This fall was in part …
Whilst Donald Trump is threatening to slam the brakes on the green transition in the US, state-level officials have the tools to continue making progress on the climate front. This Update uses our Regional Climate Databank to highlight the extreme …
9th January 2025
Overview – The potentially inflationary policy mix of the incoming Trump administration will limit the decline in mortgage rates this year, squashing hopes for a major recovery in home sales. We expect transactions to remain depressed, reaching just 4.3m …
8th January 2025
Weak mortgage demand supports our gloomy home sales forecast The small decline in purchase mortgage applications in December is worse than it looks, as it masks a collapse in demand in the final few weeks of the month, driven by mortgage rates climbing …
Our apartment metro forecasts continue to show significant variation between metros, even within regions. For example, while we expect continued strong demand growth in the South – especially in Austin, Miami and Dallas – we also expect high volumes of …
23rd December 2024
Home sales finally gain some momentum The increase in existing home sales in November, despite rising mortgage rates and weakening mortgage applications the month before, points to stronger demand from cash buyers, possibly driven by investors as election …
19th December 2024
Post-hurricane rebound marred by multifamily weakness The decline in housing starts in November was entirely due to weakness in multifamily construction, which outweighed a post-hurricane rebound in single-family construction. The rise in permits to a …
18th December 2024
The peak in new apartment supply has passed, with completions set to drop back sharply over the next few years. If demand continues to hold up well as we expect, this should put downward pressure on the vacancy rate and support a modest pick-up in rent …
10th December 2024
Purchasing activity rebounds despite higher borrowing costs The rebound in purchase mortgage applications in November shows that there were some signs of life in the market, despite the return of 7% mortgage rates. But taking a step back, activity remains …
4th December 2024
Our US Housing Market Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Conditions for would-be homebuyers and sellers will not improve much in the near term, with mortgage rates set to remain around 7% through the …
2nd December 2024
We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. What are Trump’s motives for threatening tariffs and will he follow through? Trump has spoken about using …
29th November 2024
Hurricanes and elevated mortgage rates hit sales The large fall in new home sales in October was to be expected given the disruption from hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the rise in mortgage rates last month. While sales should rebound this …
26th November 2024
House price growth picks up momentum in the summer The second consecutive moderate 0.3% rise in house prices in September reflects the market picking up momentum over the summer as mortgage rates fell. However, timelier indicators, like the sales-to-new …
President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the countries targeted – Canada, Mexico and China – to head …
We discussed the global impact of higher tariffs in a Drop-In on Tuesday, 26th November. Click here to watch the 20-minute online briefing. In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use …
25th November 2024
Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home construction sector have been concentrated among undocumented …
Modest rise in homes sales does not mark the start of the recovery The modest rise in existing home sales in October reflects the earlier drop in mortgage rates over the summer and is unlikely to be repeated, as borrowing costs have since rebounded to 7%. …
21st November 2024
Starts hit by hurricanes The decline in housing starts in October was exactly as we had expected given the hit to construction in the South from recent hurricanes and should partially reverse in November. Beyond this, we think the recent rebound in new …
19th November 2024
While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing our home sales forecast to show a shallower and later …
14th November 2024
Our US Housing Market Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Lower borrowing costs should breathe some much-needed life into the market next year, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to …
6th November 2024
Rebound in mortgage activity short-lived Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to bed any hope …
Annual house price growth continues to cool A slightly healthier 0.3% rise in house prices in August does not change the fact that the market is rapidly cooling amid weak demand and growing supply. Therefore, we stand by our recent decision to trim our …
29th October 2024
Pick-up in sales to be short-lived The increase in new home sales in September was probably supported by the fall in mortgage rates last month. Rates have rebounded since then, however, which lends support to our view that new home sales will not rise …
24th October 2024
Stagnant existing home sales should rally soon The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a recovery …
23rd October 2024
