The large rebound in housing starts and continued resilience of building permits in December provides some support to our forecast that starts will remain solid in the first half of the year. However, we expect a cocktail of building material tariffs and stricter immigration rules affecting construction labour under the new Trump administration, as well as the overhang of new homes for sale that has developed in some regions, to discourage builders from starting new projects in the second half of the year and into 2026, causing starts to tail off.
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