Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Unlike in Warsaw and Moscow, office rents in Prague, Budapest, Bucharest or Istanbul have not risen over the past year. But the latest macroeconomic and occupier market data signal that Istanbul will be the next market to join the rental recovery. … Will …
20th May 2011
The increasing divergence between the euro-zone’s core and peripheral economies are now clearly evident in the performance of commercial property markets. In contrast to the core, there is no indication yet that rental values in the periphery are …
17th May 2011
Today’s euro-zone GDP data will do nothing to boost investor sentiment towards commercial property in the region’s troubled peripheral economies. Rather it supports forecasts that the gap between yields in core euro-zone markets and the rest will continue …
13th May 2011
This morning’s German trade balance data, together with last week’s production data, suggest that Germany’s industrial recovery still has plenty of momentum. Yet, the strong recovery seen so far has not prompted a rise in industrial rental values and, if …
9th May 2011
This morning’s RICS global survey painted a fairly positive picture of Emerging European commercial property occupier markets, particularly in Poland, Russia and Turkey. But surveyors seem to be relatively downbeat on the Czech Republic. We agree that …
6th May 2011
In Q1 2011, the retail sector accounted for the greatest share of total European commercial property investment market activity. However, this morning’s dreadful retail sales data are consistent with our view that the outlook for retail property returns …
4th May 2011
Today’s ECB Bank Lending Survey makes disappointing reading for the commercial property market. The renewed tightening in credit conditions to both households and firms adds to the case for expecting that the euro-zone economic recovery will soon falter. …
27th April 2011
Within non-euro-zone Europe, commercial property markets in Emerging Europe look set to deliver the highest total returns in both the short and the medium term. We expect Russia and Turkey to record the strongest returns, but Poland appears to offer the …
21st April 2011
Since our previous Analyst we have become a little more optimistic about the potential for returns in some of the core euro-zone commercial property markets such as Germany, France and Belgium, as well as in Finland. But the outlook for returns in the …
20th April 2011
The combination of a high proportion of underutilised stock and early signs that the euro-zone industrial recovery is now starting to lose momentum, suggests that most euro-zone industrial markets are unlikely to record positive rates of rental value …
15th April 2011
Preliminary agency data shows that office rental values in Madrid and Barcelona fell further in the first three months of the year. It is tempting to conclude that having dropped by almost a third from their peak they are unlikely to fall further. But …
14th April 2011
The ECB’s decision to raise interest rates was not a surprise, nor does it materially change the stillloose stance of monetary policy. That said, if nothing else, today’s move will focus investor demand even more heavily on the larger, more liquid, core …
7th April 2011
Recent evidence suggests that European commercial property investors are showing a healthy appetite for the Polish market. We agree that the prospects for returns in Poland are among the best in Europe, and think that, with above-average rental growth, …
5th April 2011
Q4’s rebound in all-property capital values in Budapest and Bucharest is unlikely to mark the start of a rapid recovery. Indeed, weak economic growth prospects argue against a near-term recovery in rental values in either market, and suggest that there is …
29th March 2011
The latest macroeconomic data do little to alter our view that any recovery in euro-zone retail rental values this year will be lacklustre. They also seem consistent with our view that near term prospects are best in Austria, Germany and Finland, and …
25th March 2011
Many of the recent occupier market signals suggest that the outlook for Madrid office markets is marginally better than in Barcelona. Yet, if Spain continues to shed jobs this year as we expect, an analysis of relative rents suggests that the downside …
22nd March 2011
As in the West, commercial property markets in Emerging Europe are likely to split into three camps over the next two years - the good, the bad and the also-rans. While we remain wary of property markets in Hungary and Romania and lukewarm on the Czech …
17th March 2011
Given the weaker prospects for economic and rental growth in Denmark relative to Norway and Sweden, as well as the fact that commercial property in Copenhagen looks fairly pricey, the Danish property investment market looks set to continue lagging the …
16th March 2011
The combination of stronger occupier demand from multinational and financial services firms, lower completion volumes and a low starting vacancy rate has helped close the gap between the level of office rents in Geneva and Zurich. Given its smaller …
10th March 2011
We are not convinced that rental growth in the Prague industrial market will continue to outperform offices and retail. Indeed, the likelihood of a slowdown in external demand, together with the weak outlook for domestic demand, suggests that the rental …
9th March 2011
Relatively low levels of sentiment among French consumers and retailers alike seems to have prevented the French retail market from undergoing as strong a rental recovery as in some other markets. Unfortunately, this relative underperformance looks set to …
3rd March 2011
For the first quarter since non-euro-zone European commercial property markets entered the downturn, on a quarterly basis, rental values did not fall in any office, retail or industrial market. Encouraging as that is, however, with occupier demand likely …
1st March 2011
It now seems clear that prime rental values in most euro-zone office markets are either at a floor, or have entered a recovery phase. But with weak prospects for occupier demand and high vacancy rates, we do not envisage a period of rapid rental value …
24th February 2011
The latest RICS global survey presents a more optimistic outlook for capital value growth in Hungary and Romania than our current forecasts imply. But we think that surveyors may be overstating the potential for yields to fall in both markets. Even so, …
21st February 2011
In Q4 2010, office rental values rose or held steady in all markets outside of the euro-zone’s troubled periphery. But increases in retail and industrial rental values were far less common. Although office markets are leading the way, with economic growth …
17th February 2011
There are certainly some reasons to suggest that the prospects for rental value and capital value growth in the Netherlands are weaker than in most euro-zone markets. However, we think that latest RICS survey may be a little too pessimistic. Indeed, we …
15th February 2011
Italy’s historic position as one of the euro-zone’s most expensive retail markets might suggest that the recent stability of Italian retail yields, while yields in other euro-zone markets have fallen, is a temporary phase. Yet, a weak consumer spending …
8th February 2011
The latest macro indicators for Spain paint a weak picture of industrial occupier demand. Unfortunately, our view that the economy will tip back into recession this year suggests that high levels of spare capacity will persist and that industrial rental …
7th February 2011
Over the next few years, office markets in Warsaw, Moscow and Istanbul look set to continue outperforming other Emerging European capitals. Indeed, brighter GDP and employment growth prospects suggest that strengthening occupier demand will support decent …
3rd February 2011
The relative importance of the banking and financial services industries to the Frankfurt office market could mean that occupier demand will recover faster here than elsewhere in Germany. Meanwhile, with relatively low availability in the most …
31st January 2011
In non-euro-zone Europe, we envisage a divergence between the performance of commercial property markets in emerging and developed economies. Reflecting the relatively strong outlook for economic growth in Russia, Turkey and Poland, commercial property …
28th January 2011
Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead, the bigger risk may be the lingering impact on …
Survey evidence suggests that German commercial property, retail in particular, is now at the top of cross-border investors’ target lists, while the UK has slid down the rankings. This shift in preferences may well be justified for risk management …
27th January 2011
Finland’s strong external trade links should mean that industrial occupier demand in Helsinki holds up better than many other euro-zone cities over the next couple of years. And given that industrial rents are low compared to mid-2000 levels, there is …
13th January 2011
The relative strength of the Polish economy compared to the Czech Republic during the global economic downturn has helped to push commercial property yields in Warsaw below those in Prague. Given our view that the economic outlook for Poland is amongst …
12th January 2011
The recovery in Hungary may have a less solid base than some of the recent news flow might suggest. In any event, the positive economic news needs to be offset against the growing political risks and, in our view, should not be seen as signal that …
7th January 2011
The relative strength of Swedish economic growth in 2010 has helped to push industrial property yields in Stockholm below those in Copenhagen. Although almost unprecedented, with the Swedish economy set to outperform its neighbour for the foreseeable …
5th January 2011
A comparison of prime commercial property yields to estimates of their fair value levels presents a mixed picture. While a few seem overvalued, and a few more fairly valued, many still look quite cheap. Even so, with below-average levels of liquidity and …
17th December 2010
Their high starting point, a large development pipeline and a greater sensitivity to developments in the domestic economy all help to explain the relatively large falls in industrial rental values in Rome. But there is little reason to believe that that …
14th December 2010
Retail rental values in Emerging Europe are sensitive to currency fluctuations. Indeed, the weakness of the Romanian leu may help to explain why retail rents in Bucharest have been so weak this year. In 2011, however, currency movements pose the largest …
9th December 2010
For now, the recent poor health of some German open-ended property funds is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on European property investment demand. But the potential for more fund liquidations suggests that the supply of commercial property for sale, …
8th December 2010
On first glance, it is striking that falls in property yields in Lyon have more or less matched those in Paris. However, with broadly similar prospects for rental value growth, at least for the retail and industrial sectors, and given that the current …
2nd December 2010
The recent strength of the Swedish krona has not prevented a modest recovery in industrial rents. Yet, further appreciation looks imminent and the growth outlook in Sweden’s key export markets is weak. That said, on the plus side, next year’s planned …
29th November 2010
Given our fairly downbeat view on Hungary’s consumer sector outlook, the continued above-average performance of the Budapest retail investment market is difficult to rationalise. In our view, the weak outlook for occupier demand, together with our …
26th November 2010
Reflecting improvements in economic activity, there have recently been isolated reports of rising prime office rental values in parts of the euro-zone. While the floor for rents is now behind us, given our sub-consensus view on the economic outlook, past …
24th November 2010
Recent falls in Norwegian industrial yields have been a little surprising given the still fragile fundamentals for industrial occupier demand and rental value growth. As such, we think that the current spread between industrial and office/retail yields is …
18th November 2010
There are clear signs that investment demand for Western European commercial property is beginning to fade. Across the region, transaction volumes have begun to fall, or have levelled off at relatively low levels. For now, Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) …
17th November 2010
Recent moves in euro-zone real estate equity prices point to solid near term all-property capital value growth in France, but a period of broad stagnation in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. However, we suspect that this implied outlook is too positive …
9th November 2010
Given the huge economic and political uncertainties facing Belgium, the recent widening in the spread between office yields in Brussels and other cities seems entirely rational. Indeed, we suspect that these wider yield spreads still understate the …
8th November 2010
