A poor start to Q3 This week’s data dump from Korea suggests the economy weakened at the start of Q3, increasing the chances that the BoK will cut interest rates soon. Figures published yesterday showed that industrial production in July fell by 2.0% in …
1st September 2023
Vegetable price inflation still elevated The surge in tomato prices since early July has gone into reverse over the past couple of weeks and prices are now close to their levels from June. (See Chart 1.) This has been mostly due to improvements in supply …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . PMI overall improves but still points to weak growth South Africa’s manufacturing PMI strengthened in August, reversing the declines seen in recent months as loadshedding became …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weak PMIs in CEE, but further evidence of Russia overheating The manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that industrial sectors in Poland, Czechia and Turkey remained in the …
This publication has been updated with additional analysis. Inflation unchanged, set to stay below 2% Switzerland’s headline inflation rate was unchanged in August as a fall in core inflation was offset by the impact of rising fuel prices. This is the …
The start of a new leg down in prices The large monthly fall in house prices in August confirmed that the further leg down in house prices that we have been forecasting has begun to materialise. With mortgage rates likely to remain around current levels …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Manufacturing PMI defying gravity, again India’s manufacturing PMI is again defying gravity, recording one of its highest readings in the past 13 years in August. It’s clear that …
Stimulus efforts are finally gaining momentum. Yesterday, regulators announced measures to support households and shore up the property sector, including looser downpayment requirements and reductions to existing mortgage rates. And today, the state banks …
No relief in sight for manufacturing in Asia Manufacturing PMIs across most of Emerging Asia stood well inside contractionary territory in August. Weak foreign goods demand, elevated interest rates at home and bloated inventory levels suggest …
Housing recovery remains in high gear Australian house prices rose at a blistering pace in August, as demand continued to outstrip supply. Although the property market is likely to remain tight in the near term, we think house price growth will moderate …
The dollar has rebounded in August but remains broadly unchanged on the year so far. We continue to think that it (and the yen) will rally over the second half of the year as the long-anticipated recessions finally take hold in the US and other advanced …
31st August 2023
Military coups are sweeping Francophone Africa, Argentina’s wildcard presidential candidate is suddenly an election favourite and Vladimir Putin’s war is eating away at Russian macro stability. EM investors are well attuned to political risk – but has it …
We think China’s AI-related stocks may outperform their US counterparts over the rest of this year. But their longer-term prospects look less upbeat, to us. AI-related stocks in China were boosted overnight after a number of China-based firms launched …
Although we’re growing less convinced by the idea that the US economy will tip into recession over the coming quarters, we still expect disappointing growth across advanced economies to weigh on risk appetite over the rest of this year. We think that may …
We think that the silver price will fall over the next few months. But as macroeconomic and financial factors switch from a drag to a boost to demand, and as photovoltaic demand gathers pace, the price should recover in 2024. While the silver price has …
Growth in most advanced economies will disappoint later this year, putting pressure on “risky” assets and favouring “safe” ones. Developed markets (DM) government bond yields will therefore decrease further, helped by central banks shifting towards easing …
Consumption boosted by heatwave Real consumption increased by a bigger than expected 0.6% m/m in July, which will result in another round of upward revisions to third-quarter GDP growth. Our own forecast is now up to 2.3%. But the strength in July is …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Resilient economy likely to cool a touch The GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY23/24) confirm a resilient first half of the year for India’s economy in the face of the RBI’s policy …
Fixed investment has been the weak spot in Colombia’s strong post-pandemic recovery and it is likely to remain subdued over the next couple of years due to a combination of the fragile political backdrop, lower oil prices and weakness in the housing …
The repayment of ECB TLTROs by banks has gone smoothly so far and we expect the rest of the TLTROs to be repaid by the end of 2024 without significantly affecting financial conditions or interest rates. That said, the replacement of TLTROs with short-term …
Turkey’s policy shift has ticked a lot of the right boxes so far and the central bank’s large rate hike this month will go a long way to rebuilding confidence among investors. But there are still question marks about how much tightening will be delivered …
Not only did global goods trade fall in June, but timelier trade and survey data for July and August point to further declines. Meanwhile, with the lagged impact of high interest rates likely to weigh more heavily on demand for certain goods, it could be …
While the macro backdrop was broadly unchanged, rents were stronger and yields were higher than expected in Q2, forcing us to re-examine our 2023 real estate view. As a result, we have edged down our end-year all-property view for capital values. This now …
What’s driving the slide in SAMA’s assets? The drop in the Saudi Central Bank’s (SAMA) foreign assets to a 14-year low in July caused some concern this week, but we suspect this reflects funds being recycled to the Public Investment Fund. Figures …
While the Women’s World Cup ultimately ended in disappointment for English supporters, it’s somewhat fitting that climate policy is increasingly being made into a political football. The failure in the UK and elsewhere to address climate policy’s inherent …
We think there is ample scope for the US stock market to perform strongly in 2024 and 2025. Admittedly, this year’s rally in the S&P 500 hasn’t had much to do with expectations of faster growth in earnings per share (EPS). Instead, it seems mainly to …
China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of a downward spiral. We think policymakers will provide enough stimulus to avoid this and deliver a modest reacceleration in growth over the coming quarters. But most of the …
We’ve become a bit more confident in our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 5.25% now to a peak of 5.50%, rather than much further, as higher interest rates appear to be weighing more heavily on activity. The peak in UK …
Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth (outside the pandemic) since 2016 this year as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment. Our GDP growth forecasts across the region are generally …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. September rate decision hangs in the balance The small upside surprise to euro-zone headline inflation in August was entirely due to energy, while the core rate edged down. We …
Double-digit inflation will prevent September rate cut The fact that Polish inflation remained in double-digits in August, at 10.1% y/y, means that an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next week now seems very unlikely. That said, we think …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Rapid Q2 growth likely to trigger another large rate hike The bumper Turkish Q2 GDP growth figure of 3.5% q/q, taken together with more timely figures for Q3 confirms that …
Australia’s energy-sector woes On Monday, union representatives at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants announced their intention to take industrial action starting September 7 th . A union document suggests that members will engage in rolling work …
Government extending gasoline subsidies Japan’s government this week confirmed that the gasoline subsidies that were scheduled to expire in September will be extended until year-end, though gasoline prices will now be capped at 180 yen/litre instead of …
This page was first published on Thursday 31 st July, covering the official PMIs. We added commentary on the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Friday 1 st September , and Caixin Services and Composite PMIs on Tuesday 5 th September. Note: We discussed the China …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Resilience of business investment poses upside risks to growth We don’t think the ongoing strength in private fixed investment will last. However, the balance of risks to our …
Note: We’ll be discussing the China growth/stimulus question, the BOJ’s policy outlook, Indian food price inflation and more in our monthly Asia Drop-In on Thursday, 31 st August . Register here to join the online briefing. This page has been updated with …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first published. Signs of softening activity at the start of Q3 The latest activity data for Russia for July suggest that retail sales maintained solid momentum while industry has come off the boil …
30th August 2023
Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Germany and Spain today add to the uncertainty surrounding the near-term path of ECB policy. On balance, we think that the ECB will raise rates once more in this cycle and that government bond yields will fall by …
Higher gasoline prices mean CPI will surprise to the upside of the Bank’s forecasts But GDP growth is slowing and labour market conditions are loosening Bank can afford to wait for more data and is unlikely to hike again Inflation has surprised to the …
Seattle sees record decline in information jobs in July Employment growth in July was near the average seen in 2023 thus far, at a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% 3m/3m across the 30 metros we cover. But the disappointing performance of information jobs …
History suggests that dollarisation, which is at the heart of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei’s policy platform, is a surefire way to get inflation under control. But whether this translates into broader macro stability would hinge on …
Big gap between GDP and GDI persists Second-quarter GDP growth was revised down marginally to a still-healthy 2.1% annualised from 2.4%, but the alternative GDI (gross domestic income) measure suggests the economy expanded at a much slower 0.5% annualised …
On the face of it, Morrocco’s public finances are starting to look alarming. The budget deficit has widened and the public debt-to-GDP ratio has jumped by over 10%-pts in less than three years. But a deeper dive suggests that there isn’t cause for …
Inflation still stubbornly high August’s slightly higher-than-expected inflation rates in Germany and Spain mean euro-zone HICP inflation may not fall as far as we had anticipated (data due tomorrow) and marginally raise the chance of another rate hike in …
A strong rebound in tourism has bolstered retail rents in Spain and Portugal over recent quarters. However, we think this boom has run its course. Alongside a weak domestic consumer outlook, this should keep Iberian retail rents subdued for the rest of …
GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. We anticipate below-trend and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sentiment rebounds, nascent recovery may be underway The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in August and …
China’s energy demand has been a bright spot in the gloom of an ailing property sector and disappointing economic growth. We think China’s crude oil and natural gas demand will rise further next year, however, coal consumption should fall as hydropower …
Net lending to commercial property was positive for the fifth consecutive month in July although, at £297m, the increase was the smallest since lending contracted in February. Both standing and development lending fell back, with the latter contracting by …
