The stronger rise in employment and fall in the unemployment rate in September were largely due to a seasonal quirk, as the weak summer jobs market meant that fewer young workers left positions than usual at the start of the school year, which translated into a seasonally adjusted employment gain. Nonetheless, as all of the gain was thanks to a jump in private sector hiring, which the Bank is paying close attention to, our call that the Bank will cut by 50bp this month is on shaky ground.
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