We will be holding an online briefing later today to discuss the outlook for economic policy across Asia. You can register here . BoT cuts as deflation risks mount Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today cut interest rates by 25bps (to 2.25%), but appeared to …
16th October 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Not quite as good as it looks The surprisingly large drop in CPI inflation in September increases the chances that the Bank of England will speed up the pace of interest rate …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Soft inflation data tee up another 50bp cut by the RBNZ The weaker-than-expected Q3 CPI data reinforce our conviction that the RBNZ will loosen policy more aggressively than most …
15th October 2024
Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation figures for September released today will provide some …
Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already discounted in equities and the many looming risks. Much of …
We’ve long held the view that the Bank of Canada will need to cut rates at an aggressive pace – and market pricing is quickly aligning with our forecast for a 50-basis point move next Wednesday. But how far will the Bank go to ease policy, and how quickly …
Italy’s 2025 budget, set to be approved by cabinet today, suggests Italy will bring its deficit below the 3% of GDP limit imposed by EU fiscal rules much sooner than France. But Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio is still likely to remain much higher than …
Industrial’s shift toward logistics means consumer-focused economic variables have become important drivers of rental growth. Admittedly, employment growth is set to slow. But a combination of relatively solid consumer spending growth, rising online sales …
We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is available here and an in-depth Focus here .) This Update …
The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among existing members, and concerns (for some) about …
Downside surprise makes a 50bp cut next week look likely The downside surprise to headline inflation in September and muted monthly gains in the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures support our view that the Bank of Canada will choose a more aggressive …
Latin America has played an important role in absorbing China’s export surge, which is generating concern among local policymakers. But the response is likely to vary across the region. Governments in Mexico and some smaller Central American countries …
Inflation picks up, one more rate hike lies in store Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up to 32.7% y/y in September, confirming that the CBN’s fears about upside risks from last month’s petrol price hikes were not misplaced. We think the CBN will …
South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in a cheerful mood when he delivers the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 30th October; the budget deficit has narrowed and the government’s borrowing costs have fallen sharply. Even so, …
Having stormed to victory in February’s presidential election, Prabowo Subianto, a former army general and the current defence minister, will take over from Joko Widodo on Sunday (20 th October). Since his election victory, Prabowo has made a number of …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Rise in industrial production not the start of a recovery While the 1.8% m/m rise in industrial production in August was the strongest monthly rise in over a year, it is probably …
The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey suggests that demand for credit is recovering, but the rebound in housing loans is much stronger than in consumer or enterprise loans. The Bank Lending Survey for Q3 provides grounds for optimism that the housing …
South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in the unusual position of presenting the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) later this month against the backdrop of a sharp improvement in the public finances. And he is likely to use the …
Inflation edges higher This response has been updated with additional analysis. Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate rose a touch from 1.6% y/y in August to 1.7% y/y in September, a third consecutive increase and the fastest pace of inflation since …
Contrary to many expectations in the aftermath of the BJP’s humbling in the general election, there is little evidence so far of Prime Minister Modi’s party shifting to more populist policymaking. And the risk of fiscal slippage has eased following …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further easing in wage growth supports case for more interest rate cuts The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen …
The pledge at this weekend’s press conference to increase fiscal expenditure could support China’s commodity demand over the first half of 2025. But at this stage, none of the fiscal or monetary policy announcements over the past month suggest that …
14th October 2024
Evidence of residual seasonality in the core PCE deflator means there is a risk that core price pressures will rebound in the new year. That said, the residual seasonality is concentrated in core goods, which have been falling in price this year, …
In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US. Ranking metros by physical climate risks to real estate Elevated insurance premiums continue to hit valuations Unpriced …
China’s authorities are clearly making an effort to boost the country’s stock market, despite some seeming missteps. But we doubt any further gains will survive very long into next year. The fairly muted reaction in China’s equity markets today were, at …
Rise in headline inflation unlikely to derail rate cuts The jump in India’s headline CPI inflation in September was larger than had generally been expected including by the RBI, so it raises the chances of the central bank proceeding with more caution. …
Credit growth still slowing, highlighting need for larger fiscal response Despite monetary easing and a pick-up in government bond issuance, both broad credit and bank loan growth hit fresh lows in September. While the PBOC will continue to loosen policy, …
The next moves in interest rates are starting to become clearer. In the US, the incoming data continue to paint a picture of an economy that remains relatively resilient and suggest that, having kickstarted its easing cycle with a 50-basis point (bps) cut …
Although the focus in the oil market has shifted to geopolitical risks and potential short-term supply disruptions, just as importantly, we think the possibility that Saudi Arabia could open the floodgates has increased in recent weeks alongside reports …
Exports still strong but headwinds emerging Export growth slowed last month but remained resilient, with volumes still rising at a double-digit pace. We think shipments will stay strong in the near term, supported by gains in export competitiveness. …
Fiscal boost needed as deflationary pressures build CPI inflation fell in September, as an increase in food inflation was outweighed by further decreases in energy and core inflation. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened further on the back of …
MAS pivot still likely in January The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy settings unchanged today, but with growth set to weaken and inflation on its way to target we think the central bank will loosen policy in January. The MAS conducts …
It’s a rare thing for a press conference from China’s Minister of Finance to excite quite so much, but there were widespread hopes in markets that Saturday’s briefing from Lan Fo’an would finally provide the details of fiscal easing plans that had been …
12th October 2024
China’s Finance Ministry has pledged to significantly increase government debt, as well as ensure that RMB2.3trn in unused funds (equivalent to 1.6% of GDP) are spent by year-end. The latter should ensure that GDP growth ticks up in Q4 and that the annual …
Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks Inflation risks more balanced Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we calculate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator price measure increased by 0.24% m/m in September which, at 2.9% annualised, is a little …
11th October 2024
The stronger labour market data makes the Bank of Canada’s decision in October a close call but, with upside inflation risks fading, and demand still very weak, we think the Bank will want to bring interest rates to a more neutral stance relatively …
Another week of upside surprises to US data and hawkish noises from some FOMC members have helped the US dollar build on last week’s rebound. With money markets now shifting towards discounting a potential pause in the Fed’s incipient rate cutting cycle – …
Inflation declines, but another rate hike looking more likely Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks …
The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is looking for. The weak results mean that, despite the …
We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside risk from the Budget to our forecast for gilt yields to …
Kenya’s second consecutive 75bp cut Kenya’s lowered its policy rate by 75bp this week and continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that Kenya will deliver further monetary loosening over the coming months. Similar trends are …
Worrying developments in Mexico There had been a lot of debate about what to expect from Claudia Sheinbaum ahead of her inauguration as Mexico’s (first female) president and her first two weeks in office have provided the first insights into where her …
Mood turns sour amid Helene The trivial fall in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in October was likely driven in part by Hurricane Helene, although the fall in the expectations index suggests the mood among households may have soured …
Some encouraging signs in the latest CPI data The batch of September inflation data out of the region this week offered some welcome signs for central banks. In Hungary, the headline rate fell to 3.0% y/y – its lowest rate since January 2021 and slightly …
PPI points to 0.24% m/m increase in core PCE Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we now calculate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator price measure increased by 0.24% m/m in September which, at 2.9% annualised, is a little hotter than we’ve …
Stronger employment gain unlikely to be repeated The stronger rise in employment and fall in the unemployment rate in September were largely due to a seasonal quirk, as the weak summer jobs market meant that fewer young workers left positions than usual …
It makes sense that businesses and households are getting jittery ahead of the Budget on 30 th October. After all, it’s no secret that taxes will rise. This explains the falls in both business and consumer confidence in September. (See Chart 1.) (Our …
Stimulus bazooka wouldn’t stop prices from falling After investors were disappointed by the lack of major new fiscal stimulus from Chinese policymakers this week, the Ministry of Finance is expected to announce a more sizeable package on Saturday. Since …
France needs austerity Having survived a vote of no confidence on Tuesday evening, on Thursday France’s government presented its 2025 budget. The key points had been well signposted in advance: €60bn of savings next year, equivalent to 2% of GDP, made up …
Our senior economist team were online the day after the election to help clients understand the economic and market implications of what we know so far - and what's still to be answered. … Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market …
6th November 2024
