Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Mar. 23) 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s next move likely to be a rate cut The Fed’s new policy statement provides the clearest hint yet that the 25bp rate hike today is likely to be the last. We expect economic weakness and a sharper-than-expected drop back in core... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Final Fed hike unlikely to preclude a further rally in Treasuries The FOMC looks set to shrug off the latest banking sector turmoil and deliver another, probably final, 25bp rate hike today. But we think it will turn to rate cuts soon, and cut further than is... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Labour market conditions easing Although the unemployment rate remains near a record low, the decline in vacancies suggests that labour market conditions have nevertheless eased, supporting our view that wage growth is close to a... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling uncertainty only likely to grow A bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling alongside modest cuts to government spending still appears to be the most likely way out of the current impasse. It’s possible that moderate Republicans... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Ingredients in place for lower food price inflation A combination of the falls in global agricultural commodity prices, energy prices and wage growth will soon drag down food CPI inflation from a 46-year high of 19.6% in March perhaps to around 4.5% by... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The slight rise in mortgage applications in April left them little changed from their recent lows, pointing to further near-term weakness in sales. While we expect affordability will gradually improve... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Berlin office rents won’t last Berlin offices have been outperforming those in other German markets for some time. But Q1 data suggest that growth has begun to falter, and we think that the recent strength of the market won’t last. 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) While retail sales values rose at a decent pace in March, we estimate that sales volumes fell the most since 2021’s lockdowns last quarter and that weakness has further to run. That in turn should... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fall in job openings points to slower wage growth The decline in job openings to a near two-year low of 9.6 million in March, from a peak of 12.1 million a year earlier, suggests that, even without a rise in the unemployment rate, labour market... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
