UK Economics Weekly The two-sided risks to our rate forecasts Our view is that Bank Rate will rise from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.50% and stay there for all of this year before being cut to around 3.00% by the end of next year. But the two-sided risks to our... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to expect economic hit from bank turmoil The Fed will need to wait at least another few weeks for clearer evidence of the impact from the recent banking sector turmoil, but we expect economic weakness will convince officials to move to the... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the banking turmoil & the dollar The ongoing struggles of the banking sector in the US and elsewhere has muddled the outlook for the dollar. But while we think the balance of probability has shifted against the greenback, we continue... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.0% m/m fall in durable goods orders in February indicates that business equipment investment was weak even before the banking turmoil arose. With business confidence likely to have taken a hit... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What do bank troubles mean for UK mortgage lending? Bank failures have had only a modest impact on UK banks’ wholesale funding costs to date, reflecting an assessment that lenders are in good health which we think seems fair. Greater investor scrutiny... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was sustained in March. But with the full drag from high interest rates yet to be felt, our hunch is still that the economy will enter a... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The further rebound in retail sales volumes in February suggests the recent resilience in activity hasn’t yet faded. But we doubt this will last as the drag on activity from higher interest rates... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly No signs of stress in Japan’s financial markets There has so far been no sign of stress in Japan’s financial markets as a result of the banking crises in the US and the demise of Credit Suisse. Meanwhile, the government has announced another... 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on a knife-edge With the minutes of the RBA's March meeting pointing to a slightly more dovish stance, there are growing risks to our forecast for continued tightening in April and May. We think the case for a pause... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 22) March’s flash PMIs corroborate our view that the economy will see a mild recession this year. The manufacturing PMI improved but was still contractionary, as demand remained weak. Meanwhile a further... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2023) Government energy subsidies took 1%-pt off headline inflation last month, but the rise in underlying inflation to a four-decade high underscores the strength in price pressures. The data point to a... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Regional banks’ CRE exposure to weigh on lending US regional banks’ higher exposure to CRE debt means we expect their struggles to weigh heavily on credit availability for commercial real estate investors. Even without building in second round... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The modest recovery in new home sales continued in February reflecting support from price reductions and incentives offered by homebuilders, as well as a tight existing home market pushing buyers to... 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read