UK Economics Focus Spring Budget – Generous, but lacking a long-term growth plan The Budget has taken a bit of a backseat given the renewed worries about the health of the global banking system, but the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, was a bit more generous than we expected and probably... 15th March 2023 · 14 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose this week, but product stocks fell. That said, the bigger picture remains one of subdued domestic demand, which we expect to remain the case for some time yet. 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Will financial stability needs supplant inflation goal? The Fed has a very difficult policy decision to make at next week’s FOMC meeting – should it hold interest rates unchanged in the wake of the SVB collapse to shore up market confidence or, with core... 15th March 2023 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.4% m/m fall in retail sales in February only partly reversed the 3.2% surge in January, suggesting that real consumption growth will accelerate to at least 3.5% annualised in the first quarter... 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rental growth resilience won’t last Even as the economy has slowed nominal all-property rental growth has held up relatively well. But that largely reflects the impact of high inflation, which is now falling. In any event, underlying... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Jan. 2023) 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wage-price disinflation spiral looms This year’s Shunto should result in the strongest negotiated pay hikes in decades. But the average Japanese employee will have little to rejoice in. Weaker corporate profits as well as a likely... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rebound in mortgage rates hits housing demand Stronger-than-expected economic data in January led to a rebound in market interest rate expectations and a jump in mortgage rates from 6.2% at the start of February to 6.8% in March. That drove... 14th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy and markets in the wake of SVB How the fallout from events so far affects the path of the federal funds rate, and how that interacts with inflation and economic growth, will be crucial, in our view, to how markets evolve over the... 14th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: What does banking sector turmoil mean for March central bank decisions? 1678978800 Starting with the ECB today, some major central bank decisions are due in the shadow of recent banking sector turmoil.
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The 0.5% m/m rise in core consumer prices last month adds to the evidence that inflation remains stubbornly high, but the ongoing fallout from the SVB crisis over the coming days is still likely to... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q4 22) The detailed mortgage lending data for Q4 showed a slump in demand, as rising mortgage rates began to bite. The latest MLAR data confirmed the sharp turnaround in market conditions and suggest that... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read