Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts will prompt pause in quantitative tightening The RBA’s balance sheet has barely shrunk since it decided to stop reinvesting the proceeds from maturing bonds. While pressing ahead with quantitative tightening would make it easier for the Bank to... 16th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (May) House prices rose by even more than we anticipated in April and the sales-to-new listing ratio points to further gains ahead. Housing starts also jumped last month, but the rising inventory of newly... 15th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus A closer look at the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge The resilience of PCE core services ex-housing inflation is only partly due to the strength of labour market conditions, and other factors are likely to play an important role in driving it lower over... 15th May 2023 · 15 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Net commercial real estate (CRE) lending slowed sharply once again in April. Lending against all commercial sectors turned negative for the first time in nearly six years, and with little in the way... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Longer mortgage terms ease affordability constraints Borrowing over a longer period significantly reduces monthly mortgage payments. So the accelerated shift towards loans with a term of 35 or 40 years rather than 25 has probably helped to mitigate the... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn not over yet Australia’s house prices have rebounded over the last couple of months and most leading indicators suggest that the recovery has legs. However, we doubt that a sustained recovery is on the cards... 15th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Lending standards tightening, but only modestly The Bank of Canada’s first-quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) showed a sharp tightening of mortgage lending standards, but we already know that has not been enough to prevent a resurgence in... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think Gilts are poised to outperform We think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts in the UK next year. If we’re correct, that could propel Gilts to the top of the class for local-currency returns over the... 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Sticky core inflation; debt ceiling stand-off continues The April CPI release showed core inflation still remains elevated, but that won't prompt the Fed to resume hiking interest rates when the debt ceiling stand-off looks set to go down to the wire early... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Manufacturing will boom while incentives last The sharp rise in US manufacturing construction over the past two years is likely to continue into the medium term as firms take advantage of favourable government incentives. But as these expire... 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doubting the BoE’s improved outlook for activity The most striking thing about the Bank of England’s policy meeting yesterday was the big upward revisions to the Bank’s real GDP forecasts. It makes sense that the Bank has become less downbeat... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (May 2023) This revamped Global Markets Valuations Monitor combines and replaces our previous DM Valuations Monitor and EM Valuations Monitor publications. 12th May 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Why we continue to think sterling will depreciate We doubt sterling’s strong run will continue; we still think that an economic downturn in the UK and other advanced economies will lead to renewed downward pressure on sterling later this year. 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s improving labour market There is no sign yet that the remarkable improvement in France’s labour market is going into reverse. But we suspect it will do later this year as monetary policy tightening takes effect. Meanwhile... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
