UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) The pause in house price falls in April suggested that the reversal of the autumn spike in mortgage rates has allowed prices to stabilise. But with affordability still very stretched by historical... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tightening cycle over but rate cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia retained its tightening bias when it lifted the cash rate by 25bp at today’s meeting, but we suspect that it won’t raise interest rates any further over the coming months... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What to do about Japan’s large corporate surplus? Japan’s large corporate sector surpluses are a key source of deflationary pressure. Corporate savings surged in the 1990s, primarily because net interest payments slumped, and have since remained... 2nd May 2023 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The ongoing rebound in house prices is living on borrowed time. With affordability extremely stretched and the economy poised for a sharp downturn, we’re sticking to our forecast that house prices... 2nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Bank stress continues with First Republic collapse The collapse of First Republic Bank is no big surprise – it had been teetering on the edge since suffering $100bn in deposit withdrawals mostly in March – but it’s a timely reminder that banking... 1st May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr) & Construction Spending (Mar) The trivial rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a still depressed 47.1 in April, from 46.3, contrasts with the more substantial recovery in the alternative S&P Global PMI but echoes the more... 1st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily YCC set to survive for a while yet: what next for JGBs and the yen With Yield Curve Control set to stay in place at least for the rest of this year, we now expect the yield of 10-year JGBs to settle close to the 50bp tolerance band ceiling. But given we predict... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Q1 GDP growth muted; Q2 will be worse Although underlying activity growth rebounded in the first quarter, while wage and price inflation remained too high, we expect the second quarter to bring a sharper slowdown across the board. 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining vacancies should soothe Bank’s nerves The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations suggests it was closer to resuming interest rate hikes in April than we thought. Nonetheless, as the data releases this week showed a fall in the job... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The small rise in GDP in February points to healthy first-quarter growth but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a contraction in March and activity set to suffer in April due to the federal... 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Total returns stabilise, but too soon to call bottom All-property yields have stabilised since the start of the year and alongside continued rental growth, that means total returns were more-or-less flat during Q1. But, while the worst is over, the... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
