Canada Chart Pack Lenders not immune to commercial property risks Canada’s banks do not face the same immediate risks as those elsewhere. The bank sector is far more concentrated than in the US, limiting the chance that problems at small lenders will trigger a... 30th March 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update No flight in bank deposits, but bank lending growth easing While households and businesses took further advantage of rising interest rates in February by moving money into bank accounts with higher rates, they are not withdrawing money from the overall... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Downturn moderates, but outlook remains challenging The partial reversal of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget has helped to stem the deterioration in housing market demand. Our measure of the average quoted mortgage rate has... 30th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update Credit risk lurking in the shadows Japanese banks have nearly doubled their lending to overseas non-bank financial intermediaries over the past decade. Some of this reflects purchases of collateralised loan obligations, most of which... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the contagion risk from US commercial property During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), non-US investors’ ownership of US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) was a key way in which they were exposed to problems in the US housing market... 29th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Full effects of high interest rates yet to be felt The economy made a strong start to 2023, but we continue to expect a moderate recession this year as high interest rates feed through and the banking issues in the US weigh on exports. The downturn... 29th March 2023 · 21 mins read
US Economic Outlook Banking stress adds to downside risks Acute bank stress will prompt a further tightening in credit conditions, which leaves us even more convinced that the economy will fall into recession this year. With core inflation remaining stickier... 29th March 2023 · 24 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Net lending to property turned negative in February, as investors held back in the face of falling capital values. But the decline was small and even though the recent banking crisis will lead to some... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Feb.) February’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates were a further drag on lending in February, particularly in the housing market. That’s before the effects of the recent concerns... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Reflecting the partial unwinding of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget, mortgage approvals rose to their highest level for three months in February. However, with mortgage rates... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Mar. 2023) 29th March 2023 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will slow the pace of tightening With the latest economic data coming in weaker than it had anticipated, the RBNZ will likely opt for a smaller 25bp hike to the official cash rate (OCR) at its upcoming meeting on April 5th. We expect... 29th March 2023 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch April pause will be followed by final hike in May The RBA has signalled a pause in its tightening cycle at next week’s meeting and the economic data on balance suggest that it will follow through. However, we still expect it to hike rates one more... 29th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb.) What does banking sector turmoil mean for Asia? Will Japanese overseas lending come back to bite? What are China’s own bank vulnerabilities? Join our 20-minute online briefing on Thurs., 30th March... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb.) 29th March 2023 · 2 mins read