Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth mostly cyclical One reason for the slump in productivity is that the recent surge in working hours is producing diminishing returns. And we suspect that disruptions caused by the pandemic prevented firms from... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update How much scope is there for pre-election tax cuts? With less than a year and a half to go until the next general election, calls for the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to cut a range of taxes have been growing. But recent economic developments mean the... 12th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (May) While bank net lending to commercial real estate (CRE) turned positive again in May, growing signs of distress for existing loans point to further weakness ahead. The $13.7bn growth in loans secured... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recession delayed but not cancelled The economy held up better at the start of the year than we had anticipated, but we still expect it to enter a recession in the second half of the year. Even though underlying inflation probably hasn... 12th June 2023 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Conflicting signals for the Bank The fall in employment in May suggests the Bank might not need to follow its 25bp hike this week with another in July. But with employment among prime-age people continuing to rise strongly and house... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Pause in house price declines to prove temporary The seven-month run of house price declines recently ground to a halt, with the Case-Shiller index showing an increase in prices in both February and March. This was partly driven by the temporary... 9th June 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recession to drag on The euro-zone has fallen into recession, albeit only by the finest of margins – the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in both Q4 last year and Q1 this year. The consensus view is that the worst is now... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The fall in employment and the increase in the unemployment rate to 5.2% in May will probably not prevent the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates again at its July meeting, but the moves... 9th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to signal higher rates despite soft activity data We expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting but, in what could be characterised as a “hawkish skip”, to signal via forward guidance (updated SEP forecasts and... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Employment will not defy gravity forever We learnt this week that the euro-zone fell into recession but Eurostat confirmed that employment rose sharply in Q1. The labour market seems to have remained quite strong in April and May but we... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why interest rates haven’t hurt…yet Higher interest rates haven’t dented the real economy much because household incomes have been unusually strong and the interest rates households are actually paying on their loans has not yet risen... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shrinking output gap points to slower growth Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.7% q/q from 0.4% but we don’t think this strong performance will be sustained. One reason is that the output gap has narrowed significantly and points to a slowdown... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Top-ranked warehouse markets dominated by Sunbelt Our updated industrial metros analysis, which now incorporates the current vacancy rate, continues to point to Memphis as having the strongest prospects for rent growth over a three-year horizon... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Refinancing risks increase The recent upward revision to our mortgage rate forecast and the fact that the majority of those that need to refinance this year are on two-year fixes means that we are now more worried about the... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
