Japan Economics Weekly Weaker yen wouldn’t stop inflation from falling The yen briefly breached 140 against the dollar this week but we still expect it to strengthen to 125 by year-end. Even if we're wrong and the exchange rate weakens further, it wouldn't prevent... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (May 23) House prices flattened off in May after a rise in April. But with mortgage rates now on their way back up we suspect that the stabilisation in prices over the last couple of months will soon give way... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) With house prices having risen for the third month in a row, there is a growing risk to our view that the housing downturn has further to run. Nonetheless, with rising interest rates set to squeeze... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch 25bp hike coming with chance of another in July As GDP growth and CPI inflation have both surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts, we now judge that it will raise interest rates next week rather than wait until July. 31st May 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show cooling labour market The April JOLTS data suggest that the gradual easing in labour market conditions continues, which is putting downward pressure on wage growth. 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) The larger-than-expected 3.1% annualised rise in first-quarter GDP and the strong preliminary estimate in April boost the case for another interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, which could come... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Rebound in trade in March likely to be short-lived Although world trade rebounded in March amid the reopening recovery in China, we don’t think this marks the beginning of a broader turnaround in global trade. In fact, timelier data point to renewed... 31st May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany HICP (May) The fall in German headline inflation in May and signs that core price pressures eased echo the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to limit... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Apr.) Total employment growth reached a solid 0.7% 3m/3m on average in April for the second consecutive month, led by Boston, Las Vegas, Charlotte and Orlando. But for office-based jobs, the poor... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 4.35% by July With inflation set to overshoot the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts this quarter, we’re now pencilling in two more 25bp rate hikes, including one at the upcoming meeting on 6th June. And we don... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr. 23) While the pick-up in inflation in April mostly reflects base effects from the excise duty cut a year ago, trimmed mean CPI picked up as well. With inflation set to overshoot the RBA’s forecasts this... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 23) April’s activity data were a mixed bag. The fall in industrial production and sharp drop in retail sales volumes pose downside risks to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. By contrast, capital goods shipments... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Apr. 23) 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update High immigration helps explain record rent rise High net immigration helps explain why rental growth accelerated to its fastest pace on record last year. Immigration won’t be as high this year, adding to the reasons to think that rental growth has... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
