UK Commercial Property Update Will less generous online returns help retail property? Recent economic difficulties have forced online retail to tighten their returns policies. At face value, this seems good news for retail property as it may shift demand back to stores for certain... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) The significant improvement in the RICS survey in May echoed the pause in house price falls in the past few months. But the survey also showed an increase in supply, which could make prices more... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2023) The narrowing of the trade surplus in April was driven in large part by a deterioration in the terms of trade. We think net exports will actually provide a modest boost to GDP growth this quarter. 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus The electric vehicle threat to Japan’s car industry Japan’s carmakers face an existential threat from the emergence of cheap EV exports from China. Even in a benign scenario where carmakers eventually jump on the EV bandwagon, we suspect that they... 8th June 2023 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2023) 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Higher for longer There appears to be enough support on the FOMC for a pause at next week’s meeting, but the statement and new projections will make clear that this is not the end of the hiking cycle. We now expect... 7th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank resumes hikes and probably another to come The Bank of Canada’s 25bp interest rate hike today is unlikely to be the last, with the rapid turnaround in the housing market and concerning underlying inflation dynamics raising the case for at... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient interest sensitive activity indicators won’t last According to our proprietary interest rate-sensitive indicators, activity in advanced economies has so far proven remarkably resilient to higher interest rates. A lot of this has been due to a rebound... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Apr.) Easing supply shortages supported strong export growth in April but, with the surveys of export orders still very weak, that strength is likely to fade soon. 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and BoE June meetings 1686837600 What will major advanced economy central banks decide at their June meetings, and how will those decisions be messaged?
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (May) Mortgage applications for home purchase fell to their lowest level in almost 30 years in May, as a renewed rise in mortgage rates weighed on demand. This points to further near-term weakness for home... 7th June 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The disappointingly small rebound in German industrial production in April suggests that the boost from lower energy prices and improved global supply conditions at the beginning of the year has run... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
