US Economics Update Stakes are higher than normal for 2024 election The stakes could not be higher for this year’s presidential election – with the expected head-to-head rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump offering starkly contrasting polices on trade, the... 2nd October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Homeownership increasingly unattainable Buying a first home has become increasingly difficult over the past 30 years. A high income is still essential, but other circumstances such as whether the individual is buying as part of a joint... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (October 2023) The valuations of “risky” assets have only been undermined a little by the big rise in the yields of “safe” assets in recent months. We think that the valuations of risky assets may fall a bit more in... 2nd October 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The housing rebound will continue to lose momentum over coming months as affordability is increasingly stretched, but policy easing by the RBA should provide a renewed boost to prices next year. 2nd October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to cut rates as core inflation normalises We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.1% this year to only 0.8% in 2024, with the economy still likely to experience a near recession around the end of this year. Core inflation will continue to fall... 29th September 2023 · 16 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly On the cusp of recession despite surging population The recent acceleration in immigration may not be enough to keep the economy afloat, with the latest data and surveys pointing to an increased chance that GDP will contract over the rest of the year. 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Revisions leave economic landscape unchanged The comprehensive revisions to the GDP data did not make a significant change to the macroeconomic story, with the real economy still 6.1% larger than in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the discrepancy... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pressure on the pound to persist We think the markets are wrong to expect the Fed to keep interest rates at their peak for almost as long as the Bank of England. If so, then the recent downward pressure on the pound from the decline... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy deficit projections: worry but don’t panic The Italian government’s decision to raise its deficit targets suggests it is trying to get away with as little fiscal tightening as possible. With EU fiscal rules set to come back into force next... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Aug. 2023) The drag from higher interest rates on bank lending grew further in August, particularly in the housing market. Although interest rates have probably peaked at 5.25%, this effect will intensify as the... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
