US Economics Weekly Rising long rates a fiscal rather than monetary problem The conventional wisdom is that the recent surge in Treasury yields is a reaction to the Fed’s “higher for longer” message. But that surge has been focused solely on the long end of the curve... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off already hurting the economy The rapid rise in the 30-year gilt yield has lifted it to a 20-year high but, while striking, so far the speed of the increase is slower than in the run-up to the liability-driven investment crisis... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and we expect it to shrink further... 6th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The strong headline employment gain in September was entirely due to a rebound in educational services employment, with employment elsewhere edging down. That suggests labour market conditions... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Sep.) The surprisingly strong 336,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September adds to the evidence on real activity that the economy is holding up well despite the headwind from higher interest rates. 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What the bond market sell-off means for the euro-zone The bond market sell-off, and associated tightening of financial conditions, reinforces our view that the ECB has finished hiking. The market moves have been nowhere near big enough to prompt the ECB... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Sep. 23) The sixth consecutive monthly decline in the Halifax House Price Index in September leaves it significantly more downbeat than the Nationwide figures about near-term momentum in house prices. Given... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resurgence in price pressures won’t last The Melbourne Institute’s timely inflation gauge suggests that trimmed inflation is likely to overshoot the RBA’s expectations for Q3. Although the Board left rates on hold this week, we therefore... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle continues as yen weakens The sudden strengthening of the yen after it breached 150 against the dollar earlier this week has triggered speculation that the Ministry of Finance sold foreign exchange reserves to support the yen... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Falling inflation at odds with ‘higher for longer’ The ‘higher for longer’ narrative on interest rates that is baked into market pricing is at odds with evidence of widespread falls in inflation. Higher oil prices mean that fuel inflation will be a... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are surging bond yields responsible for surging bond yields? A laundry list of explanations has been provided for the surge in the term premia of Treasuries since mid-year, which has accounted for more than ~100bp rise in the 10-year yield based on the ACM... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update How a surge in bond yields could yet wreak havoc We expect any rise in bond yields to be gradual and don’t believe it will create major economic or market dislocation. But there are risks that the Bank of Japan loses control over longer-term yields... 5th October 2023 · 6 mins read
