Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2023) The contraction in Q1 GDP means that a recession is now well under way in New Zealand. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBNZ will shift gears and start cutting rates before year... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Ranking metros by physical climate risks to real estate Florida and other parts of the Sunbelt (notably major cities in Texas) will likely face the most severe physical climate risk over the next 30 years. While this is unlikely to come as a major surprise... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The uptick in industrial production in April was mostly driven by strong growth in Ireland, with many other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to struggle this... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 2023) & Machinery Orders (Apr. 2023) 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response UK Monthly GDP (Apr. 2023) The 0.2% m/m rise in real GDP in April, following March’s 0.3% m/m contraction will further raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession this year. But the rise in GDP is not as good as it... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ sell its ETF holdings at a discount? While selling its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings at book value to the government wouldn’t impair the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet, we don’t think it would provide the boost to fiscal revenue... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Sticky UK inflation is unlikely to keep Gilt yields higher forever The 10-year Gilt yield has continued to march higher on the back of recent data releases, outpacing the equivalent Treasury yield and putting upward pressure on the pound against the greenback. But we... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The BoE's June meeting – Policy rates, mortgage rates and the macro outlook 1687442400 With inflation still running hot, the Bank of England has little choice to keep raising interest rates.
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline CPI inflation fell to a more than two-year low of 4.0% in May, thanks to favourable base effects and another sharp drop back in energy prices last month but, with core price inflation still... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q1 23) With mortgage rates surging, the number of loans issued to buy a home dropped sharply in Q1, with Buy-to-Let lending seeing the most severe drop. Those that did press ahead with a home purchase... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2023) The labour market became tighter in April and wage growth reaccelerated. That will only add to the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates further at the policy meeting next Thursday... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
