Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cash rate of 4.85% will push economy into recession In response to the hawkish shift by RBA Governor Lowe and the further acceleration in unit labour cost growth, we now expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 4.85% by September. That aggressive... 7th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 23) Real GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter as household spending ground to a standstill. However, with productivity falling for a fourth consecutive quarter, unit labour costs grew apace... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for equities after the debt ceiling deal The resolution of the debt ceiling debate has cleared a cloud that was hanging over the US equity market, but we think a darker one – a growth slowdown – still lingers. That’s why we doubt the rest of... 6th June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Why is the UK economy lagging behind? Many of the factors that explain the UK’s chronically weak GDP growth since the pandemic, such as the shrinking of the UK’s workforce and low export growth, won’t disappear any time soon. This... 6th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to lift cash rate to 4.35%, cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25bp today and the hawkish tone of the statement suggests that the risks to our terminal rate forecast of 4.35% are tilted to the upside. Indeed... 6th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Jun. 23) 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Apr. 2023) Wage growth fell in April due to a fall in overtime pay and mostly stagnant bonus payments, while regular pay growth rebounded. But labour market conditions should loosen in the second half on account... 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Fall in job vacancies across sectors needs to go further The recent decline in the number of job vacancies suggests that the upward pressure on wage growth from labour shortages is probably past its peak. But it’s still not clear that wage growth will slow... 5th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Why are job vacancies so low in Japan? Job vacancies haven’t surged in Japan because the participation rate has risen since the start of the pandemic and there hasn’t been a “Great Resignation” amongst Japanese workers. With the labour... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payrolls may not stop lower UST yields and equity prices Despite the stronger than expected US non-farm payroll print, we still think both the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the rest of this year. 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Why wait? The upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth means there is a rising probability that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again. While the commonly held view seems to be that the Bank will... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling deal sealed; Fed to skip June T he debt ceiling standoff ended not with a bang but a whimper – as the bill easily passed the House and Senate with comfortable majorities. Although the prospect of a debt ceiling deal briefly... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mega-cap outperformance: lessons from history In a recent Global Markets Update, we analysed the remarkably narrow rally in the S&P 500 so far in 2023. We concluded that recent history supported our forecast that the rally will run out of steam... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
