US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

Conditions for would-be homebuyers and sellers will not improve much in the near term, with mortgage rates set to remain around 7% through the first half of next year, before modest relief arrives...

2nd December 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% rise in house prices in September reflects the market picking up momentum over the summer as mortgage rates fell. However, timelier indicators, like the sales-to...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 24)

All-property values are down 18% from their mid-2022 peaks. And with appraisal-based cap rates still set to tick higher, we expect further small falls in values. That should take the peak-to-trough...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Where are the residential construction layoffs?

Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home...

25th November 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Budget measures to weaken property recovery

The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over...

22nd November 2024 · 26 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2024)

The modest rise in existing home sales in October reflects the earlier drop in mortgage rates over the summer and is unlikely to be repeated, as borrowing costs have since rebounded to 7%.

21st November 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still...

20th November 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Oct. 2024)

The decline in housing starts in October was exactly as we had expected given the hit to construction in the South from recent hurricanes and should partially reverse in November. Beyond this, we...

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery

While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024)

Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

CRE Drop-In: The residential outlook – Europe vs the US and the case for outperformance

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Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver?

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2024)

A slightly healthier 0.3% rise in house prices in August does not change the fact that the market is rapidly cooling amid weak demand and growing supply. Therefore, we stand by our recent decision to...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

French residential property returns to lag the pack

Softer rental prospects, less scope for yields to fall and lower income returns look set to weigh on French residential property returns compared to Germany, the UK and the US in the coming years.

29th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2024)

The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Focus

What is the outlook for German residential?

Poor economic growth and vulnerability to structural change in the office and retail sector are set to weigh on German property returns in the coming years. But solid rental prospects in the...

23rd October 2024 · 14 mins read