US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Aug. 2024)

The large rise in housing starts in August was due to a rebound in starts in the south, confirming that the July slump was a temporary disruption caused by Hurricane Beryl. The increase in permits...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024)

A stabilisation of property yields and solid rent growth mean that euro-zone all-property values increased in Q2 for the first time in two years. However, market sentiment remains very weak and...

23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Strong supply weighing on house prices in the Sun Belt

Significant homebuilding in the Sun Belt region over the past three years has restored housing inventory to pre-pandemic levels, which is why house prices there have stalled. In contrast, markets in...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jun. 2024)

The rise in housing starts and building permits in June is not as good as it seems at first glance, as it was driven by gains in the volatile multi-family sector, which we think will prove temporary...

17th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial supply risks look most pointed in Phoenix

The legacy of the post-pandemic industrial construction boom is now being felt in rising supply across most metros. With the demand outlook stabilising, we think the evolution of supply will shape...

9th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

The shape of Labour's housing policy

The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said...

3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (May 2024)

The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding

With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of...

14th June 2024 · 9 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Housing Starts (Apr. 2024)

The modest rebound in housing starts in April confirmed that the slump the month before was a weather-related blip. But the recovery wasn’t as strong as we had anticipated, which potentially casts...

16th May 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Shutting out institutional buyers won’t lower house prices

Lawmakers' current efforts to restrict institutional buying of single-family homes won’t put downward pressure on house prices if enacted, as their market share is minimal.

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Housing Starts (Mar. 2024)

Housing starts weren’t able to build on the strong performance of the previous month in March, falling by the largest monthly amount since April 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. Although some...

16th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2

Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached...

21st March 2024 · 31 mins read