US Housing Market Update

Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery

While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024)

Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2024)

A slightly healthier 0.3% rise in house prices in August does not change the fact that the market is rapidly cooling amid weak demand and growing supply. Therefore, we stand by our recent decision to...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2024)

The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Sep. 2024)

The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to...

18th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2024)

The impact of lower mortgage rates was finally evident in mortgage applications in September, with applications for home purchase rebounding to a three-month high. With mortgage rates falling to...

2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Sellers lose grip on the market

Increased supply and weak demand are both contributing to the slowdown in house price growth. The recent sharp drop in mortgage rates should cause the market to retighten, but it will take time for...

24th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2024)

Another muted 0.2% rise in house prices in July adds to the sense that the housing market is cooling amid weak buyer demand and growing supply. As price growth continues to moderate quickly with no...

24th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2024)

The slump in existing home sales in August shows that the sharp fall in mortgage rates since late-July is yet to stimulate the market, although the signs of life in last week’s purchase mortgage...

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Aug. 2024)

The large rise in housing starts in August was due to a rebound in starts in the south, confirming that the July slump was a temporary disruption caused by Hurricane Beryl. The increase in permits...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Aug. 2024)

The drop in home purchase mortgage applications in August is surprising given the sharp fall in mortgage rates the month before. Some would-be buyers may be delaying their purchases due to increased...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2024)

The muted 0.2% rise in the national Case-Shiller house price index in June was no shock considering that buyer demand collapsed that month, while supply kept growing. With the spring selling season...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2024)

The small rebound in existing home sales in July seems underwhelming after last month’s large drop in mortgage rates, but the data are based on completed transactions and so it will take at least...

22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Drop in mortgage rates won’t set the market alight

We are sceptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market. Rates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read