US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Nov. 2024)

The rebound in purchase mortgage applications in November shows that there were some signs of life in the market, despite the return of 7% mortgage rates. But taking a step back, activity remains...

4th December 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

Conditions for would-be homebuyers and sellers will not improve much in the near term, with mortgage rates set to remain around 7% through the first half of next year, before modest relief arrives...

2nd December 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% rise in house prices in September reflects the market picking up momentum over the summer as mortgage rates fell. However, timelier indicators, like the sales-to...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Where are the residential construction layoffs?

Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home...

25th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Oct. 2024)

The decline in housing starts in October was exactly as we had expected given the hit to construction in the South from recent hurricanes and should partially reverse in November. Beyond this, we...

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery

While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024)

Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2024)

A slightly healthier 0.3% rise in house prices in August does not change the fact that the market is rapidly cooling amid weak demand and growing supply. Therefore, we stand by our recent decision to...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2024)

The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Sep. 2024)

The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to...

18th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2024)

The impact of lower mortgage rates was finally evident in mortgage applications in September, with applications for home purchase rebounding to a three-month high. With mortgage rates falling to...

2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Sellers lose grip on the market

Increased supply and weak demand are both contributing to the slowdown in house price growth. The recent sharp drop in mortgage rates should cause the market to retighten, but it will take time for...

24th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2024)

Another muted 0.2% rise in house prices in July adds to the sense that the housing market is cooling amid weak buyer demand and growing supply. As price growth continues to moderate quickly with no...

24th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2024)

The slump in existing home sales in August shows that the sharp fall in mortgage rates since late-July is yet to stimulate the market, although the signs of life in last week’s purchase mortgage...

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read