Echoing the unexpectedly large increase in payroll employment last month, January’s retail sales and manufacturing output data were unquestionably strong too. Admittedly, retail sales appear to have been boosted by problems with the seasonal adjustment, while the unseasonably mild winter weather in the Northeast also seems to have been a factor. Nevertheless, the economy is on a stronger footing than the weaker November and December data, which may also have been distorted by seasonality issues, led us to believe.
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