US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed operating in the dark The Fed is struggling to provide forward guidance without clear policy direction from the new administration. Even though rate-setters expect core PCE inflation to end the year at close to 3%, the... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The tariffs will continue until sentiment improves Comments from President Donald Trump and his cabinet members in the past week suggest that neither an economic downturn nor a severe stock market decline will deter the administration from pursuing... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump tariff push descends into farce Markets reacted badly this week when President Donald Trump once again flip-flopped on imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. That's two U-turns in a month. It remains to be seen whether... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trumpcession? Following the 0.5% m/m slump in real consumption in January and the massive 10% m/m surge in real goods imports, we now expect first-quarter GDP to contract by 1.0% annualised. Assuming that surge in... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump turns the screw on tariffs One month after returning to the White House, President Donald Trump continues to issue new tariff threats, this week taking aim at imports of motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. His... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetings 1742482800 Our senior economists hosted a wrap-up of the latest policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England, to answer questions from the audience about how the strate
US Economics Weekly US reciprocal tariffs will be a big deal After a hot CPI report this week and a not-so-hot PPI report (at least not in the components that count) we estimate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE price measure increased by 0.28% m/m in January... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The art of the deal While President Donald Trump’s U-turn on 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico serves as a good reminder that he is always open to cutting a deal, be careful writing tariffs off altogether. China came... 7th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed in no hurry with tariffs coming Our expectation is still that, in net terms, the policy mix the Trump administration is adopting will have a mildly stagflationary impact. That is why we expect GDP growth to slow below 2% from the... 31st January 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: What have we learned from Trump’s first week? President Donald Trump’s first week back in office kicked off with a bang. He signed around 100 executive orders and strongly signalled that there were more policy changes to come. The week’s... 24th January 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Near-term inflation outlook improves The December PPI, CPI and import price data were together consistent with a muted 0.14% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. After a brief resurgence in inflationary... 17th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Still waiting for clarity on the Trump agenda More than two months after Donald Trump and the Republicans completed a narrow clean sweep in last November’s election, and with only 10 days until the inauguration, there is still massive uncertainty... 10th January 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Policy uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2025 Earlier this week we published our US Outlook. We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and... 20th December 2024 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Muted price data cements 25bp cut The tame November price data has soothed concerns about a resurgence in price pressures, giving the green light for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week's meeting. 13th December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation the last piece of the puzzle for the Fed The data releases this week provided some support for our view that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp at its next meeting, rather than pause, although next week's price data will be the deciding... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump tosses first social media hand grenade Here we go again. This week President-elect Donald Trump lobbed his first social media hand grenade since the election – threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if both countries didn... 27th November 2024 · 7 mins read
