US Economics Weekly Policy uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2025 Earlier this week we published our US Outlook. We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and... 20th December 2024 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Muted price data cements 25bp cut The tame November price data has soothed concerns about a resurgence in price pressures, giving the green light for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week's meeting. 13th December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation the last piece of the puzzle for the Fed The data releases this week provided some support for our view that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp at its next meeting, rather than pause, although next week's price data will be the deciding... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump tosses first social media hand grenade Here we go again. This week President-elect Donald Trump lobbed his first social media hand grenade since the election – threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if both countries didn... 27th November 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Deregulation unlikely to be a game changer We remain sceptical that deregulation will provide a disinflationary boost to the economy’s supply side and we suspect that any reduction in government spending or headcount would turn out to be... 22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
US Economics Weekly Inflation surprise not enough to prevent December cut While the hotter-than-expected October price data serve as a reminder that the Fed’s fight against inflation is not over, we don't think this is enough to prevent a December rate cut. This could... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will Trump be good or bad for the economy? The market reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory suggests that, with the Republicans closing in on a clean sweep of Congress too, his return to the White House will be a net positive for the... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Harris versus Trump: Closing thoughts Although the betting markets are still convinced that Donald Trump will win next week’s presidential election, the polls remain much closer – and within the margin of error. 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Could Musk influence a future Trump presidency? If Donald Trump wins the election, we think there are a few policy areas where Elon Musk, who has become one of the campaign's biggest supporters, would try to influence Trump. 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data hold up despite disruptions The data this week confirmed that retail sales rose strongly in September and industrial production suffered only modestly from hurricane and strike disruption, with our third-quarter GDP growth... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to adopt more measured pace of rate cuts September’s blockbuster employment report and the rebound in the October ISM services index mean that any hopes of another 50bp rate cut are long gone. We continue to expect the Fed to take a more... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Revisions clear up some nagging doubts Leading up to this week’s annual revisions to the national accounts, we were attuned of the risk that the expenditure-based real GDP measure might be revised lower to match up with the income-based... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opts for a 50 despite strong GDP growth The Fed’s decision to start its rate cutting cycle with a bang was not a big surprise after the seemingly coordinated media articles late last week warning that the 25bp vs 50bp debate was closer than... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shelter inflation the last piece of the puzzle The 25bp vs 50bp debate, which seemed settled following Governor Christopher Waller’s cautious speech shortly after the August Employment Report, was blown back open this week by what appeared to be... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
