The strength of healthcare employment and spending growth is because the sector is still recovering from the pandemic and also thanks to the jump in Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrolments. Employment and spending have almost caught up with their pre-pandemic trends, but the rise in ACA enrollments suggests hiring and spending growth will remain solid, and is one example of how earlier fiscal stimulus is still supporting the economy. Nonetheless, we don’t see this as a meaningful upside risk to medical care services inflation, given that wage growth in the sector looks set to slow further.
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