US Economics Update Labour market able to withstand D.C. shakeup Due to the relatively small size of the federal workforce and the large number of exempt positions, the federal government hiring freeze should have only a modest impact on payroll employment. More... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum come at a time when domestic capacity utilisation and import intensity are low, implying they will have less of an impact on overall prices... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Trump still reliably unreliable President Donald Trump’s eleventh-hour decision to delay the 25% tariffs he had threatened to impose on Canada and Mexico is a good reminder of his unpredictable nature. We don’t think Trump’s U-turn... 5th February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data point to balanced labour market Despite showing a modest fall in job openings, the totality of the December JOLTS data are consistent with a labour market that has stabilised at a healthy level. 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with tariffs President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China from this coming Tuesday, (with the only partial exemption for Canadian energy... 2nd February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update US Fed moves to the sidelines The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% today and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What if Trump imposes tariffs on Canada and Mexico? This Update answers some key questions about the likely implications of the US imposing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Our current forecasts are based on the assumption of a 10% universal... 27th January 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans? The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Mr Trump goes (back) to Washington President Donald Trump returned to the White House today with pen already in hand to sign what is expected to be close to 100 executive orders. That flurry of executive action will set the tone on... 20th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update US twin deficits a growing vulnerability The precarious nature of the outlook for the Federal budget deficit is well appreciated at this stage, but arguably the bigger long-term risk is the mounting current account deficit. With the primary... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling drama begins to brew Raising the federal debt ceiling this year will likely come as part of a budget reconciliation package alongside concessionary spending cuts given the razor-thin Republican majority in the House. As... 13th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Trump’s word on climate is not the be-all and end-all Whilst Donald Trump is threatening to slam the brakes on the green transition in the US, state-level officials have the tools to continue making progress on the climate front. This Update uses our... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in corporate bankruptcies not a big concern The rise in corporate bankruptcies last year is not a huge concern, but it does add to the sense that firms are struggling more than the headline GDP and labour market data suggest. That in turn... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Lower quits point to easing wage growth The November JOLTS data, when paired with recent employment reports, show a labour market returning to pre-pandemic norms. Meanwhile, the fall in the private quits rate to its lowest since the height... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed delivers a hawkish rate cut The Fed did cut interest rates by an additional 25bp today, as was largely expected, taking the fed funds rate down to between 4.25% and 4.50%. But the vote was not unanimous and, in a hawkish shift... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
