Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary disruptions but, with core inflation pressures heating up a touch in recent months, we still expect the Fed to revert to 25bp cuts from here. We have pencilled in 25bp cuts at each meeting until the fed funds target range reaches 3.00% to 3.25% in mid-2025, although the tightly-contested election next month means there is considerable uncertainty about the outlook.
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